(Dr Pentapati Pullarao)
Narendra Modi is a good political fire-fighter. Whenever any crisis comes and he cannot control them, Modi withdraws that policy. That is a great quality in a politician. A good example was how Modi withdrew the “farm laws, when he found they were damaging him. But while Modi is a very good fire-fighter, Modi has not set up a system to predict and avoid political fires.
The great Indian prime minister P V Narasimha Rao had another way of tackling problems.; PV said “that if you ignore a problem, it will go away “. Many times, this happens. But in this day of intense democratic competition, an Indian prime minister cannot ignore problems.
Narendra Modi became prime minister in 2014. While his electoral victories means that people approve of him, there is also a tendency to allow events and issues to reach serious levels. Only then, does Modi or BJP start addressing the issue. There is no crisis – prediction system in place. The BJP system is so centralized, that no one likes to take bad news to the ruler. The hesitation in taking bad news to the top leadership means that issues become serious and cause political damage.
- There is no doubt that the economy is doing badly. Till recently, the budgets of Modi were full of confidence. It was only in the last budget that Modi government recognized that middle classes had turned against the government. Then some concessions were made. But these concessions are too little and too late. To now tackle the bad economy, just recently for the first time in India history, Government appointed former Reserve bank of India governor Shakti Das Sinha as principal secretary of Prime minister. This is a recognition that the economy is doing badly.
- Delimitation crisis: The last Delimitation was done in 2002. Now suddenly, Delimitation is the talk of the country. This is because there are genuine fears that the old system of keeping number of Lok Sabha seats frozen will be given up. The Southern states fear that if population is the only criteria for fixing number of Lok Sabha seats, then they will lose. Both Indira Gandhi in 1976 and Atal Behari Vajpayee in 2002 “froze number of seats, while having adjustments within a state “. But if Modi increases the number of Lok Sabha seats and if population determines number of MPs each state will get, then southern states will lose. Here again, Delimitation issue could have been solved if early steps were taken. Now there is wild speculation, and any answer will create more controversies.
- Language controversy: Tamil Nadu has opposed the New Education policy of Modi government and demanded that 2-language formula continue. Whatever the merits of the two sides, Modi government should have shown restraint and respectfully asked Tamil Nadu for discussions and find a middle way. Instead, central education minister has been too aggressive, and this has further divided the country, especially South India.
- Agriculture failures: Over 45% of India is connected to agriculture. When Modi took power in 2014, he said that within 7 years, he will double income of farmers. But agriculture continues to be in depression. Enough attention has not been paid to solve the big problems of agriculture. The only solutions are the old solutions, and they never worked. Agriculture is a major failure of not only Modi, but all the state governments.
- Mindless infra-structure: We need infra-structure. But we don’t need mindless infra-structure just to keep that corporate happy in Mumbai. When money is spent on infrastructure, cement, steel, engineering, heavy machinery, mining equipment, etc. gets a boost. These industries keep saying that the economy is doing great, and Modi government propagates that. There is a need to control mindless spending on infrastructure and shift to other sectors like agriculture. But who will tell Modi?
- No new blood in government: A great British Prime minister Harold Macmillan said 65 years ago that “a Good prime minister must be a good blucher”. Macmillan meant that a prime minister must sack inefficient or burdensome ministers. But in the Modi government, nearly 80% of ministers have been there for over 8 years. In a parliamentary system, new blood is needed. But obviously, Modi does not like change. This is affecting his government, as there is too much staleness.
Opposition helping Modi: In many areas, Modi has recorded great success, especially in defense, foreign affairs, security, health, etc. But the Opposition could have focused on economy and agriculture. Instead, the Opposition focuses on ideological issues and the electorate is not interested. Modi really does not face a strong opposition.
Most of the problems that Modi faces can be solved, if they were tackled early. But Modi government lets problems become serious and then good solutions are not found. Modi should encourage people bringing bad news. Definitely, if Modi noticed the suffering of the middle classes, Modi could have corrected the economy early. Now Modi does not really know what to do!
This pattern of letting problems grow will eventually damage the government. For governments to fail, a strong opposition is un-necessary. If people get too disturbed, then that becomes a serious challenge for the government. Modi should remember the narrow victory of 2024 parliament elections.
(Author is a Political and Economic Analyst)
