Liberal Party leader Peter Dutton was leading till a few months ago. But anti-Trump wave seems to be drowning him, giving Albanese a chance.
(Shankar Raj)
Crucial polls are underway in Australia under the looming shadows of US President Donald Trump’s shadow of tantrums and tariffs. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of the Labor Party is facing off against Peter Dutton’s center-right Liberal Party, which is promising to get the country “back on track” after three years in opposition.
Till a few months back, Dutton, who fancied himself as a Trump of Down Under, was in the lead in all the prepoll surveys. But, thanks to the way Trump has upset the world, Albanese is back in the reckoning and is tipped to win.
Many analysts say that Australia will go to the Canada way. The formula for winning an election in western democracies and nations allied to the US is getting simple: the bigger the distance one keeps from the US President, the better are the chances of a win.
Trump was supposed to destroy establishment centrists with an anti-woke global populist revolt. But his wild and unpredictable second presidency is doing the opposite. His tantrums, power grabs, the nasty tariff wars and threats to nations and the judiciary have swiftly brewed resentment. Foreigners might be cynical about their own leaders, but many look at Americans and think, “We don’t want what you’ve got.”
That’s why Mark Carney is still prime minister of Canada. And in a stunning message, he said: “I wonder what to do with a mad man.”
The Liberals in Canada are celebrating an astonishing election victory after Carney pulled a stunning victory from the jaws of defeat. A couple of months ago his party was 25 points behind. He would not have even been in politics if it weren’t for Trump, whose demands that Canada become the 51st US state and tariffs that could be existential for its economy doomed the opposition.
Now, at the other end of the world, the man vying to become Australia’s next prime minister has been burning midnight oil trying to distance himself from comparisons to Trump.
“I’m my own person,” Dutton insisted, when asked for his thoughts on “Teemu Trump,” the label given to him by critics referring to the Chinese website with a reputation for cheap copies.
Political analysts say comparisons to Trump have eaten away at any lead Dutton had over incumbent centre-left Albanese.
Ex-police officer Dutton, like Trump, was seen as the uncompromising strongman of the party’s right wing. He was a former minister for defense, home affairs and immigration.
He’s been accused of stoking culture wars, claims Australia takes in too many migrants, and days ago branded the nation’s public broadcaster “hate media.”
“His instincts are those of a right-wing populist. I have no doubt about that, so they do bear resemblance to the kind of politics and rhetoric we’ve associated with Trump,” Frank Bongiorno, professor of history at the Australian National University, was quoted in the media.
Dutton also faces the potential ignominy of losing his own seat in parliament, as happened to Canadian Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre. Dutton holds Dickson, a constituency in the outer suburbs of Brisbane, by just 1.7% – and rivals are circling.
Australia is seeing “a diluted version” of the Canada trend.
Marija Taflaga, director of the Center for the Study of Australian Politics at the Australian National University, was quoted in the media as saying: “Better the devil you know,” hinting at a win for Albanese,
The main issue this election has been the cost-of-living crisis, and both major parties have promised to help lower household bills with an array of tax cuts and handouts.
In an echo of Trump who slashed federal jobs, Dutton has promised 41,000 federal job cuts, an end to work-from-home privileges and an overhaul of “woke” school agendas – some of which he’s had to roll back.
The big question is whether Australia will go the Canada way. Another comeback Down Under? Unlike Canada, Australia is a big supporter of India.
(The author is a senior journalist and a commentator on international affairs)
