A Litmus test for Modi government
(Dr Pentapati Pullarao)
Barack Obama created history when he became the first Black President of the USA in 2009. Obama was a great speaker and after victory, he said: Elections have consequences. Tough luck, you lost “. Obama meant that power has changed hands. Of course, within a short time, Obama became an un-popular president, and these words haunted him. In fact, people say that Donald trump became president, as the result of public disgust with Obama in 2016.
On November 14, Bihar results will be out, and they will have big consequences. There will be bigger consequences for the India Alliance than for the BJP. India Alliance is the challenger and naturally, defeat will be severe. But defeat will also affect the BJP and Narendar Modi. The BJP should not have made Bihar a prestige issue. Wars are lost due to false prestige. Hitler declared war on Russia in 1941. His armies moved fast but got bogged down in Russian city of Leningrad. Capturing Leningrad became a prestige issue for Hitler and Russian leader Stalin ensured that Hitler got stuck there and lost the war.
Why should BJP have made Bihar so prestigious?
Elections have consequences and on November 14, 2025, whoever wins Bihar elections, will carry away a big prize. The main actors in Bihar election are the Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chief minister Nitesh Kumar, opposition leader Rahul Gandhi and Lalu Prasad family and a host of other leaders.
Victory will give a fresh life to the winners and defeat will be severe. The politicians in their craving for power, have made Bihar a small state become a Kurukshetra. No prime minister has come from Bihar. But no tall leaders have really emerged from Bihar, with an All-India impact.
Now Narendra Modi has to win this state to have a smooth run till 2029. Similarly, the India Alliance will also suffer severely if it loses Bihar.
Impact of Bihar on Modi:
- Defeat in Bihar will damage Narendra Modi ’s image. But Modi will move on. Modi faced defeat earlier in Bihar in 2015, Karnataka in 2022, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh in 2018. BJP and Modi will say that Bihar is a state election.
- A defeat in Bihar will mean that Modi must review his economic and agricultural policies. While Modi has succeeded in foreign affairs, Defence and Health, etc, farmers and middle classes feel neglected. So, Modi will have to dump his present economic policies.
- Modi will understand that mere investment in infrastructure means little, unless middle classes and farmers are happy.
- Definitely, if BJP is defeated in Bihar, allies like Chandra Babu Naidu will demand more political favours.
India Alliance survival at stake:
- A defeat in Bihar for India Alliance will mean that Rahul Gandhi ‘s politics and ideas had no impact. It will be a big setback for Rahul Gandhi. The Congress must do well in Bihar, if Rahul Gandhi has to go forward.
- A defeat for Laloo Prasad Yadav party will mean that various cases like the “railway land-for-Jobs scam, etc will be speeded up. It will definitely be a harrowing time for Laloo family, as they might face jail. Even if Laloo party forms government, the cases will not go away. Laloo’s son Tejaswi will also lose his stature, that is only a big windbag.
- Defeat in Bihar will mean that India Alliance will face a surging BJP in Uttar Pradesh, Assam and Bengal where state elections are due.
- Congress leadership of India Alliance will be severely questioned. There will be a lot of questions raised on the Opposition’s future.
What will victory for India alliance mean?
- The BJP will be facing severe pressure. The India Alliance may refuse to attend parliament and demand that Election Commission be dismissed and do things to reduce prestige of Narendra Modi.
- The growth of BJP across the country will be halted. There will be aggressive election campaigns in Uttar Pradesh, Assam and Bengal to defeat the BJP. Yogi Adityanath will face a serious challenge.
- The BJP will have to change its entire strategies, or it will face defeat. Political parties in a democracy can’t win endlessly. There will be a feeling in India that Modi’s charisma is declining
Of course, no one can predict how the future will go. Defeat in Bihar may mean nothing after a year. The gains and consequences of defeat or victory will mean much more for the India Alliance, Rahul Gandhi, Laloo Prasad Yadav and the entire opposition.
For the BJP, victory or even a Hung-Assembly will be enough. For the India Alliance, it must be a clear victory. Let us wait for November 14.
(Author is a Political Analyst based in New Delhi)