(Dr Pentapati Pullarao)
Baluchistan is much in the news in India today. Baluchistan is nearly 45% of Pakistan’s area and has only about 6% of its population. Baluchistan has immense mineral wealth, oil, gas and a seacoast. It has all the assets needed for a viable country. There is a long-time movement for making Baluchistan a separate country. Indians are wondering whether Baluchistan will break away from Pakistan and deal it a mortal blow. If Baluchistan does break away, Pakistan won’t recover. But is it likely to happen?
History of Baluchistan
Before 1947, Baluchistan consisted of 4 Princely states and another part of it was ruled by British. After 1947, some princes of Baluchistan wanted a separate country. But the British persuaded them to join Pakistan in 1948, There seems to be regrets since then. Baluchistan is being exploited by other parts of Pakistan and Baloches have taken a backseat.
There are sporadic movements by Baloches for a separate nation. But their actions are not enough to create great tension and worry for Pakistan.
From 1945, after Second world war, many new countries have been formed. Russia broke up and at least 10 new countries were formed. Then the collapse of the British Empire led to many new nations. But forming a new country like Baluchistan has many hurdles.
One of the few new nations formed after 1945 is Kurdistan. But the struggle for Kurdistan has been going on for 100 years. But Kurdistan was formed only after USA invaded Iraq in 2003 and allowed Kurdistan to be formed. Otherwise, it is doubtful if Kurdistan would have been formed.
Conditions needed for a new country
a. There should be support from immediate neighboring countries. Those neighboring countries will give shelter to soldiers and also those who flee Baluchistan.
b. It is much easier if a Super-Power supports the formation of a new country openly.
c. Pakistan must become weak and be unable to control Baloch rebels. In general, there should be a depression in Pakistan.
Status of Baluchistan’s fight for separate country
- So far, none of Baluchistan’s neighbors support a separate nation. Other than Pakistan, Baluchistan has Iran and Afghanistan as neighbors. The neighbors are quiet, and they have good relations with Pakistan.
- India is not a direct neighbor of Baluchistan. If Baluchistan bordered India, then it would have meant a big gain for Baluchistan.
- China has grabbed the rights to minerals and other natural resources in Baluchistan. China has built a giant port at Gwadar in Baluchistan. Therefore, China will use its might to control Baluchistan.
- Pakistan has been ruthless in killing thousands of Baloches. Since Baloches are Muslim, Pakistan has a free hand in killing them and there will be no international pressure. But even if thousands are killed in Baluchistan, there won’t be a murmur Thousands of Baloches are being killed every year. But no big country has raised its voice.
Can Baluchistan become independent?
Anything can happen in this world but many things must happen for Baluchistan to become Independent.
- Pakistan should face many problems and become a weak state. Pakistan is a “failed state “. But Pakistan is not a weak state, since the Army is powerful and rules Baluchistan with an iron hand. There are no free courts or free media there.
- China and Pakistan should become enemies, and China has to leave Baluchistan. That does not look possible presently.
- The Free Baluchistan movement has to become more intense. Right now, the Baloch Army is not that strong.
Role of India
- India is a member of the United Nations and cannot participate in the break-up of another country. India cannot openly support a separate Baluchistan country.
- India can finance Baloch people to join rebel activities secretly and help the Separate Baluchistan movement. But India cannot do it openly.
- India can raise Baluchistan human rights issues in the world and also finance Baloch to protest in foreign countries.
Will Pakistan leave Baluchistan easily?
Considering the huge mineral wealth in Baluchistan, Pakistan will go to any lengths to save Baluchistan.
Pakistan employs the tactic of “making Baloch rebels dis-appear”. There are no killings. Any rebellious person and his family are simply kidnapped, and they disappear.
There is a lot of noise in the media about Baluchistan. But the situation is not ripe for Baluchistan actually becoming a separate country.
Will India gain from free Baluchistan?
India definitely will gain if Baluchistan leaves Pakistan. In July 2009, when Indian prime Minister Manmohan Singh met the Pakistan Prime Minister Gilani in Egypt, he assured him that India will not in future support rebel activity in Baluchistan. This confirmed that India was secretly helping Baloch people.
The Indian government has not openly said anything. On the other hand, Pakistan has encouraged Khalistani rebels in Punjab and other rebels in the north-east of India.
In the next few weeks, we will know how serious and deep the Baluchistan movement is. If Baluchistan is to become free, it will have to be a long fight. Don’t expect a new nation of Baluchistan next week!
(Author is a Politico-Economic Analyst based in New Delhi)