Analysis on Punjab’s 2027 Election
(Dr Pentapati Pullarao)
The un-expected meet between Prime Minister Modi and Akali dal chief Sukhbir Badal on August 7, 2026, has thrown Punjab politics into a shock. The BJP and Akali dal broke their alliance in September 2020. The question everyone ponders what happens fi BJP and Akali dal contest Punjab elections together?
Punjab was formed on 1 November 1966, following a long political movement led by the Akali Dal, which itself was formed in 1920. Punjab has a population of about 3 crores. Punjab has the highest proportion of Scheduled Castes (SCs) among Indian states, at about 32% of the population. Jat Sikhs form the largest land-owning and politically influential community in Punjab, with about 25% of the population. Except for former President Giani Zail Singh and recently C.S. Channi, nearly all chief ministers were Jat Sikhs.
In 2017, Congress won the state elections and Amarinder Singh became chief minister. For various reasons, Rahul Gandhi removed Amarinder Singh and replaced him with a Dalit politician, C.S. Channi, thinking that the 32% Dalits would vote for him. They did not, and in the 2022 state elections, Congress lost very badly and got only 22% of the vote. AAP (Kejriwal’s party) formed the government.
Punjab is heading towards the most unpredictable Assembly elections in February 2027. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP, Kejriwal’s party) rules Punjab and Congress are the main opposition. BJP and Akali Dal, who were allies earlier, also won substantial percentage of votes. After P M Modi and Sukhbir Badal met, all electoral calculations are off. In the 2022 Assembly Punjab election and 2024 Parliament elections, there were four-cornered contests, where the BJP and Akali Dal contested separately. Now BJP and Akali dal may unite.
2024 Lok Sabha verdict
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Congress emerged as the largest party, winning 7 of 13 MPs with 26.30% of the vote. AAP won 3 seats, polling 26.02%. Akali Dal won only one seat but retained a 13.42% vote share. The BJP won no seat but made a dramatic advance, polling 18.56%. The BJP and Akali Dal together won 31.98% of the votes, much more than either Congress or AAP (Kejriwal’s party).
What would a BJP-SAD alliance change?
The BJP and SAD were long-standing allies before their separation during the farmers’ agitation. The two parties subsequently fought separately in the 2022 Punjab elections and 2024 Parliament elections, with both losing very badly.
The AAP and Congress were safely calculating that the BJP and Akali Dal would never get together and their votes would be divided. But as former Prime Minister Harold Wilson said famously 60 years ago: “A week is a long time in politics.” With one sudden meeting between Akali Dal chief Sukhbir Badal and Prime Minister Modi, the mood has changed in Punjab.
As of now, however, it is important to state that no formal alliance has been announced. Sukhbir Singh Badal’s recent meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. A BJP-SAD alliance could nevertheless be extremely consequential. Both parties discovered in the 2024 Lok Sabha election that by fighting separately, they would both lose. The BJP obtained 18.56% but won none; SAD obtained 13.42% but won only one Parliament seat. Together, they are much more than the Congress and AAP.
Their reunion would therefore be an important electoral arrangement, and Punjab would see a Triangular fight. Moreover, BJP and Akali dal have many tall leaders, including former chief minister Amarinder Singh.
Congress and the problem of dissidence
Congress’s greatest weakness may be Congress itself. The Congress high command has been trying to impose greater discipline before the election. But Punjab voters have historically responded strongly to personalities and local leadership. Former Chief Minister Amarinder Singh is with the BJP, and he has good relations with the Badal family of the Akali Dal.
How is the AAP government doing?
AAP enters the election with the advantage of incumbency but also with a substantial anti-incumbency challenge. The Bhagwant Mann government has still a lot of public support. But remember, when AAP (Kejriwal’s party) won in 2022, the BJP and Akali Dal fought separately. Therefore, both AAP and Congress face a major challenge from a possibly united BJP-Akali Dal alliance.
The real battle
The 2027 election may ultimately be decided not by which party has the largest vote share in isolation, but by who consolidates the anti-incumbent vote.
If BJP and SAD unite, they could emerge as a serious challenger and potentially displace Congress as AAP’s principal challenger.
Punjab, therefore, may be heading towards a fascinating three-cornered contest. Congress was sure that it would win since it was the largest opposition party and anti-incumbency votes would come to it. But the BJP and Akali Dal were allies for 40 years earlier. The vision that they are uniting has badly upset both AAP and Congress. Congress’s traditional strength and the possible BJP-SAD revival collide. The next election could be decided by a relatively small shift of voters—but that shift may determine who governs Punjab for the next five years.
Let us wait, since there are still six months for the elections. Moreover, in politics, 2 plus 2 does not always make 4. Everyone thought that former ruler of Patiala, Capt. Amarinder Singh, was finished after his own defeat in 2022. But once again, Amarinder Singh might have a big role to play.
(Author is a political analyst based in New Delhi)