(Dr Pentapati Pullarao)
Kael Marx was a great historian, and present-day Marxism is based on his thoughts. Marx said about 150 years ago: “Men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please “. Will Nitish Kumar 20-year chief Minister of Bihar make history by winning the 2025 Bihar elections or will he be dumped into the dustbin of history??
The challenger to Nitish Kumar for the last 20 years is Laloo prasad Yadav and unless he wins, Laloo will become history. The entire Laloo family will be in trouble if they don’t win.
Bihar will also test the popularity of prime minister Narendra Modi and also whether Rahul Gandhi ‘s style of politics can win elections.
Importance of Bihar elections:
- The first issue is whether Chief Minister Nitish Kumar will win the elections. If Nitish Kumar wins, it means end of Laloo Prasad Yadav and a big political setback for Rahul Gandhi. it will be a big boost for prime minister Modi.
- If India Alliance wins, it will be a big boost for Rahul Gandhi and the defeats of 2024 parliament, Maharashtra and Haryana state elections defeats will be forgotten. A defeat for India alliance will jeopardize careers of Rahul Gandhi totally
- However, the most consequential new entrant into Bihar is famed election strategist Prashant Kishor, whose party has picked up in last month. Respected surveys say that Kishore has about 10 to 15% support and if true, then Prashant Kishor will become the upset factor of Bihar elections.
Bihar election history:
In the last 35 years, Bihar has been dominated by dynasties, mafia lords and caste lords. The same families dominate elections, and new faces don’t get a chance. This applies to regional and national parties, and a new face never gets a chance, unless he is a billionaire or a ‘Bahubali or strongman “.
There are total staleness and corruption in Bihar politics The same politicians dominate, though they change parties as easily one changes clothes. Neither Nitish Kumar or Laloo Prasad or BJP and Congress Do Not represent change. The stink of staleness dominates Bihar.
Exploitative political dynasties have been formed in all parties in Bihar. If the father is a minister, then his son or daughter is an MP. There is no room for others. Politics is the best family employer.
Role pf Prashant Kishor:
Prashant Kishor is famous and started his party Jan Suraj in October 2024. One cannot agree with boasts of Prashant Kishor that he will form the government. But the fact is that Kishor has gathered strength. If Kishore can get 15% votes, then the entire Bihar election will throw up un-expected results and will upset the old dominant parties.
Most youth in Bihar know that most politicians are corrupt and use caste or religion to grab power and start family dynasties. Prashant Kishor represents an alternative and new politics. In the days to come, it is expected that many popular people will join Kishor.
Impact of Nepal on Kishor and Bihar:
It may sound strange but remember that Bihar has the longest border with Nepal and millions of people in Nepal are of Bihari origin. Northern Bihar treats Nepal as its own place. The upsurge of youth for change in Nepal has had a great impact on the Bihari mind. Similar conditions as in Nepal prevail in Bihar. Dynasties, corruption, casteism and no development plague Bihar as in Nepal.
The overthrow of the government and chasing away politicians in Nepal has sent signals to Bihari youth, that such change is possible. It is a possibility that there will be some impact for change in Bihar and Kishor offers change.
Who will win ?
- Prashant Kishor will make an impact. But this is his first election. If Kishor can get a reasonable percentage of votes, there will be shock defeats and victories in Bihar.
- Laloo Prasad and India Alliance have not formed a government since 2005. But thanks to Yadavs and Muslims, Laloo Prasad has a vote bank. If Prashant Kishor takes away BJP alliance votes, then Laloo will gain. Some rumors have come that there are differences between Rahul Gandhi and Tejeshwi Yadav. But that is only public posturing to get MLA seats by Congress. Both need each other to survive
- Nitish Kumar has a good reputation and a good chance to win. But, the question is whether Prashant Kishor will upset his election? Narendra Modi’s charisma will help Nitish Kumar. But there is an air of staleness in Nitish Kumar.
Remember that Naveen Patnaik of Odisha was popular and honest as Chief Minister for 24 years. People voted him out of sheer desire for change and throw out other Odisha politicians. In Bihar, neither Nitish Kumar or Laloo Yadav represent change, and they represent the same stink of rotten politics. Since 1989, in Bihar it has bene only Laloo Prasad Yadav or Nitish Kumar.
Bihar is a big state, and Prashant Kishor cannot perform a miracle like Kejriwal did in Delhi in 2013. But the winds of Nepal are blowing strongly into Bihar. The Bihari youth want change. Let us see whether the Nepali Himalayan winds are strong enough to blow away the stink, corruption, dynasties and staleness of Bihar politics! Even a small shock will be good enough!
(Author is a political analyst based in New Delhi)