Arvind is no Mahatma Gandhi… he is a disrupter in Indian Politics
(Dr Pentapati Pulla Rao)
Kejriwal is chief minister of Delhi, which is a small State with only 7 MPs. Yet Kejriwal looks like a giant in Indian politics. Delhi election results on February 8, 2025, will have national impact, purely because of Kejriwal’s personality. Most political parties fear Kejriwal as he brought new ideas to politics. Kejriwal was chief minister thrice from 2013 and 90% of his MLAs are newcomers to politics, from very humble backgrounds. If Kejriwal’s system catches on in India, then all the politicians, who have been exploiting the system since 1947, will be out. Dynasties will suffer greatly, and professional politicians be evicted.
Kejriwal is no Mahatma Gandhi. Kejriwal is ruthless, cunning and a “disrupter” in Indian politics. just as Apple phone was a disruptor in telephones. BJP and Congress want only a two-party system, so they are the eternal gainers.
For 60 years, Congress and BJP dominated Delhi politics. Kejriwal wiped out Congress and ensured that BJP did not form a Delhi government from 2013. The people of Delhi think that the BJP and Congress are the same.
No local political personality has emerged in Delhi from both the BJP and Congress. The Delhi BJP and Congress leaders have to run around their “High command ‘and have not grown. The biggest advantage for Kejriwal is that there is no big Congress or BJP leader in Delhi.
Kejriwal a terror for both BJP and Congress
Both the Congress and BJP fear Kejriwal. He has never shown any fear of them and attacked them boldly. Kejriwal’s party is the only regional party in Indian history to win 2 different states of Delhi and Punjab. No regional party in India ever achieved victories in more than one state.
Kejriwal and Congress: Kejriwal had always opposed the Congress. But Kejriwal had an alliance with Congress for 2024 parliament elections due to political compulsions. Kejriwal has now demanded that Congress be expelled from the India Alliance. If Kejriwal wins Delhi on February 8, he will immediately create embarrassing situations for Rahul Gandhi. If Kejriwal wins, Congress will have to give up the leadership of India Alliance. That is why Congress wants to stop Kejriwal from winning Delhi. Kejriwal will be a bigger foe to Rahul Gandhi than BJP.
Kejriwal and BJP:
The BJP had lost 6 continuous Delhi state elections from 1998. The BJP desperately wants to capture Delhi this time since it faced a loss in June 2024 parliament elections. BJP knows that Modi’s prestige is low. By having won Haryana and Maharashtra, Modi has earned back some prestige. But if BJP wins Delhi, then BJP can say that it is back as a rising party. Victory in Delhi will be very beneficial to BJP in coming Bihar and Uttar Pradesh elections, since BJP will look like a “winner”.
The BJP wrongly sees Kejriwal as an enemy. BJP cannot oust Congress. Only Kejriwal can and he defeated Congress in Delhi and Punjab. When KCR lost in Telangana, the Congress formed the government. Where is BJP in Telangana?
Kejriwal’s chances in Delhi :
- There is definitely anti-incumbency against Kejriwal in Delhi. Kejriwal has been ruling Delhi from 2013 and won 3 elections. Now Kejriwal faces the fourth straight election.
- The Delhi liquor scam has also impacted the clean image of Kejriwal. Till Delhi liquor Scam, Kejriwal had a great image. Strangely, in Delhi Liquor Scam, there were Telugus from both states and Kejriwal now swore never to have anything to do with Telugus, as they have ruined him.
- Kejriwal had earned a reputation that he helped the poor and middle classes. To compete with him, BJP is over–doing freebie promises in Delhi. The question is whether people will reward Kejriwal for past benefits or go for the big offers of BJP.
- Congress and Muslim seats: In 2020 Delhi elections, Kejriwal won all the 7 seats, where Muslims dominate. Now Congress is focusing only on the Muslim seats to either win them or stop Kejriwal from winning, The Congress wants to damage Kejriwal. The first preference of Congress is that Kejriwal loses. If there is a hung assembly and Kejriwal needs Congress MLAs, then Congress can support him to control him.
Kejriwal still has an edge: Still Kejriwal has an edge. Delhi knows that BJP and Congress leaders are not accessible. Kejriwal and his party are accessible. Moreover, there is still gratitude to Kejriwal for some things he did. The Middle classes vote for BJP for parliament elections and for Kejriwal in state elections. The big question is whether middle classes will vote the same way for Kejriwal now. If middle classes continue to vote for Kejriwal, no one can stop him.
If Kejriwal wins, despite anti-incumbency, it will mean that BJP is losing cities due to poor economics. But a Kejriwal victory will create immense problems for Rahul Gandhi.
A great English politician Enoch Powell said 60 years ago: that all politics ends in failure. If Kejriwal loses, then it will be a big survival crisis for him and recovery will be difficult.
(Author is a political and economic analyst based in New Delhi)
