(Dr Pentapati Pullarao)
Pakistan has been a constant enemy of India from August 15, 1947, when we got Independence. But for some years, there was peaceful existence. So peaceful were relations between India and Pakistan that that then Prime minister Nehru travelled to Karachi in 1960 and signed the Indus River Water Treaty with Pakistan. But after the India-China war in 1962, China tied up with Pakistan to jointly fight India. India was their common enemy.
Though we signed the Indus Water Treaty in 1960, by 1965, a big war happened between India and Pakistan. From 1965, there has been only war with Pakistan.
Issue of going to war with Pakistan
After the latest terror incident in Pahalgam in Kashmir, people of India were incensed and there is a demand to settle Pakistan once for all. Indians feel that Pakistan is no match for India, and we should punish Pakistan.
It is right that Pakistan is no match for India. But the reality is that war with Pakistan means war with China too. China will not openly join Pakistan in a war. But China will give maximum support to Pakistan. For many decades, China funds Pakistani Army and supplies all the weaponry needed. China is like a spectator and enjoys Pakistan harassing India.
- Wars can be started easily. But no country can predict how it will end. Mighty Russia started a war with small Ukraine in February 2022 and Russia is bogged down in Ukraine. Japan and Germany started Second world war and lost. USA and France fought in Vietnam for 25 years and lost. The USA fought Taliban in Afghanistan and lost. The list of big countries fighting mall countries and losing war is endless.
- In the last 125 years, since 1900, in 95% of wars, whichever country started a war has lost. It is always better to allow the enemy to start the war.
- Once India starts the war, China will easily sustain the war by Pakistan. It will cost China little in comparison with India has to spend. Every day, India may have to spend thirty to forty thousand crores.
- There is no way for India to say that the war will end in a fixed time. There will be severe economic problems, shortages and inflation in India. Pakistan and China are not democratic countries, and their people cannot object to economic problems. But Indians are now addicted to freebees and direct -cash transfers.
- One may think that India has many friends. India has no military alliance with any country. It will be a lonely war.
- India should also be prepared to find that Pakistan has built up its military along India border with China’s help. War today is not done with elephants and horses. War today is with computers, electronics and new weapons like drones. The style of war has changed. India should plan for surprises.
- China fought with small Vietnam in 1979 and lost. Since 1979, except border tensions, China does not fight wars directly. It pays others to fight. Its military is only to psychologically frighten enemies.
There are 2 famous ancient proverbs Indians should remember: Great Chinese philosopher Sun Tzu 2500 years said: “The best victory is won without a war “. Sun Tzu further said “Know your enemy and you will never be in danger “
India must carefully assess all aspects of a big war with Pakistan.
After the Pahalgam terror killings, prime minster Modi said that Pakistan will be punished. Every Indian wants Pakistan to be punished. But we need great minds and cool heads to determine our next steps. India cannot start a war and not win quickly.
India took some good steps
- The Government was brilliant in suspending the India River waters Treaty with Pakistan. Since 1960, even when we had wars with Pakistan, India never touched the Indus River Waters. Pakistan became over-confident. It is a big shock to Pakistan that India had finally decided to use the “Brahmastra “against Pakistan.
- India should not play cricket or do other things which reduce the seriousness of Pakistan terror tactics on India.
India and China: India knows fully ell that China is the paymaster of Pakistan. China is now in a vulnerable situation, as USA has turned against it. China has been making overtures to India. India can insist that China reduce its incitement of Pakistan. China may pressurize Pakistan to avoid war with India.
Can India avoid war with Pakistan?
War should always be a last option. India has now put great pressure on Pakistan through suspending the Indus River Treaty and also threatening full war.
- India can demand that terrorists be handed over to India. Pakistan will have to make concessions on this issue.
- India can demand that Pakistan withdraw from Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. In 1947-1948, Pakistan occupied parts of Kashmir.
- India can raise so many other demands Surgical strikes won’t work this time, as Pakistan is ready
India should be ready for war. The prime Minister has assured revenge. But India should explore very diplomatic possibility. History has shown us that “Diplomacy is the best way to win a war. Don’t under-estimate diplomacy.
(Author is a Political and Economic Analyst)