Like Tectonic shifts between continents
(Dr Pentapati Pullarao)
The biggest un-seen change in the world right now is that the continent of Africa is slowly shifting away from Asia, at the rate of one inch per year. In thousands of years, Africa will not be connected to Asia. When the biggest change happens, you never realize it. Similarly, in India, the biggest changes are about to happen, which will change politics, life, economies and 8impact the entire country.
In the next 3 years, there will be a National Census, Caste census, Delimitation, increase of Parliament and some assembly seats and finally, the 33% Women Reservation Bill, where one –third of all MP /MLA seats will be reserved for women. Nowhere in the world is there a Women Reservation law. By 2029, there will be huge political, social and economic changes. India will be totally different from what it is today. Not many people realize the immense change coming.
1.Census: The last census in India was done in 2011. The new census will show the immense growth of population, the illegal influx of foreign migrants, the regional disparities in population growth and also how the people have moved from one state to another and from villages to cities. States with bigger population will get more money from central government.
2. Delimitation: The last Delimitation was done in 2002. But now, Delimitation will be done after the Census. In every state, the map of every MLA and MP constituency will change drastically. There will be new seats and many will be abolished. Most of the present MLAs and MPs will lose their seats.
3. Increase in number of MLAs and MPs: The number of MLAs in Telangana and Andhra will increase. BJP Modi government also proposes to increase number of MPs across the country. Most of the new MLAs and MPs will be city-based, since population has come down in rural areas and increased phenomenally in cities. Individual rural leaders cross India will lose their power. Rural leaders will lose influence.
4. Caste census: The British divided Indian society by caste and religion. Mahatma Gandhi worked against it. But, now with a caste census, after nearly 100 years, we will face new challenges. There will be battles in politics and the courts.
5. Women’s reservation Bill will be implemented by 2029 elections. Straight away, this will remove most of the male MLAs and MPs. 33% will be reserved for women and another 24% for Sch. Castes and Sch. Tribes. It is goodbye to most the present MLAs and MPs. With one shot, nearly 90% of MLAs and MPs won’t be back in 2029.
Change is a constant:
The great Greek philosopher Heraclitus said that 2500 years ago: Change is constant “. He meant that change cannot be stopped. Un-knowingly, around us, the most massive political and social changes are happening in India.
Within the next 3 years, there will be massive change in India. Whether that change will be positive or negative for India, only time will tell.
Impact of changes:
- The change in number of MP seats will mean that there will be a power shift in India. Since 1971, the number of MPs, state-wise- has been fixed and every state had the same number of MPs since 1971. But Modi government may propose an increase of 20% MPs for every state. Even though, an equal increase for every state looks fair, it will actually mean that bigger northern states will increase their share in the total number of MPs. This will definitely increase power of Northern and western states.
- Women Reservation law will mean that the old established leaders will not have seats to contest. That will also mean the end to senior leaders since MP seats will be constantly rotated. Except for those owning their political parties, there will be no senior leaders. People will lose their contact with leaders. Many rich people will get to contest elections.
- End of great leaders: Every democratic country has legislators with 40 to 50 years’ experience, as there are in India. That will end now. Like fast-food, we will have short-term fast leaders. This will have a very native impact on the country.
- Caste census: Definitely, the cast census will have an impact. It depends on how our political leaders and the media try to ensure that there are no deep divisions. The Supreme Court will also have a great role to play to ensure that every section of society is satisfied.
- The General census itself will show how people are moving in this country. Millions of Bengalis, Odia’s, Biharis are now spread across the southern states Is it better to allow them to vote in southern states? This may be a logical thing to do
It takes centuries to build something grand. But it takes only a little time to destroy it. 3 great empires, namely the Turkish, Russian and Austrian Empire existed for hundreds of years. But a simple mistake in 1918 saw them end within 4 years.
The coming political tectonic change in India must be handled very carefully. One can safely predict that the coming changes, not more than 15% of the sitting MPs and MLAs will again get those posts.
(Author is Political analyst based in New Delhi)