Jean Karr’s saying can be attributed to Tamil Nadu
(Dr Pentapati Pullarao)
Great French writer Jean Karr wrote in 1849 in “The more things change, the more they remain the same. This applies greatly to Tamil Nadu, since the same political parties and politicians are still there after 50 years.
Tamil Nadu is unique since it was the first state in India to have Assembly elections in 1937. The great Rajagopalachari became the first chief Minister of Madras State. Except for Nizam Hyderabad, most of the South, barring Mysore state, were under Madras state.
Tamil Nadu politics
1. Since 1967, only DMK and ADMK ruled Tamil Nadu. These 2 parties ensured that even though they depended on allies, they never took Ministers from alliance partners and thereby kept such parties weak.
2. Second terms are very rare in Tamil Nadu. MGR got a second term in 1984 and Jayalalitha in 2016. For Stalin to get a second term, his opposition must be divided.
3.The Congress party has been out of power since 1967 and depends on alliances to get some seats.
4. Minorities, both Muslims and Christians form nearly 20% of the electorate.
Language and religious controversies in Tamil Nadu
DMK gained power in 1967 due to anti-Hindi agitations. But elections are not now won language issues anymore. Similarly, there is much talk about religious issues. But such issues are existent in Tamil Nadu since 1920. The British encouraged such issues since 1920 in Tamil Nadu. Chief Minister Jayalalitha was very religious openly and it did not stop her from winning elections.
History of Tamil Nadu
The British started ruling Madras (now Tamil Nadu) from 1858. Telangana had the Nizam rule till 1947. That is the big difference. Where the British ruled, they smashed local leadership, divided people on castes and religion, to maintain their hegemony. The British refined the strategy of “Divide and Rule “. Since Congers Party and Mahatma Gandhi were their main opposition in India from 1920, British in Tamil Nadu and elsewhere, pushed “Divide and Rule “.
But in princely states like Nizam Hyderabad or Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, etc, the British did not interfere. That is why there were 2 Indias- British India and Princely India. In Princely India, the rulers tried to ensure harmony so that their rule is un-disturbed.
Stalin’s future
Chief Minister Stalin has been a quiet politician, who always seek compromise. It was Stalin who raised the issue of un-fair Delimitation and loss of MP seats for the south. It has become a major national issue. Though Stalin speaks little, he hits hard when needed. Stalin is also not abusive or confrontational with opponents. There is no personal hatred against Stalin, like there was against Karunanidhi or Jayalalitha.
Stalin has given reasonably good governance. Stalin’s future will depend on whether the ADMK alliance can get more partners and whether the Opposition is not divided into 2 fronts. If the Opposition is divided as it is now, then Stalin may win, like Jayalalitha did in 2016.
Chances for ADMK- BJP alliance
The ADMK is led by E Palaniwamy, former chief Minister, did quite well after death of Jayalalitha in 2016. In 2024 parliament elections, the BJP and ADMK fought separately and lost all the MP seats. Now ADMK and BJP have formed an alliance. But that is not enough.
This alliance finds that with the sudden entry of popular actor Vijay; the opposition vote may be divided. Unless Vijay joins the anti- DMK alliance, it is default to stop Stalin.
Modi factor in Tamil Nadu
There is no doubt that the BJP has grown in Tamil Nadu and that mod is a popular leader. But the growth of BJP in British ruled states will be slow. Even in other Hindi states, it took BJP 40 years to form a government.
Definitely the image of Modi will help. Further, both the DMK and ADMK represent “same old politics”. Many younger voters want change and want dynasties to go. Since 1967, Tamilian voters had no choice but DMK and ADMK. Now new options are opening. BJP will gain, but slowly.
Freebees don’t count in Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu started the “everything free” culture in India. But Tamilian voters always threw out governments after one term as they demand good governance. This is a lesson for all political parties and particularly, politicians in Telugu states. Everything free won’t work.
Kamaraj Nadar was chief Minister of Tamil Nadu from 1954 to 1963. Kamaraj had no family or a bank account. Kamaraj became Congress President during Nehru’s time and made 3 Prime ministers, including Indira Gandhi. Kamaraj is respectfully remembered even today in Tamil Nadu. Tamil Nadu expects more from their politicians, not just cash.
Former chief ministers Rajaji, Kamaraj, Annadurai (DMK Founder), MGR, Jayalalitha did not leave dynasties. Only Karunanidhi left Stalin.
There is nearly 10 months’ time for Tamil Nadu elections. The great Kamaraj Nadar had a great reply to everything. “ Pakalam “meaning “Let us wait and see “.
(Author is a Political Analyst)