India alliance and Kejriwal
(Dr Pentapati Pullarao)
Delhi is a small state with only 7 MPs. There is no dominating BJP or Congress leader in Delhi. Yet, Delhi elections have assumed a national importance. The Congress has been ousted from Delhi without even one MLA or MP by Kejriwal. Though the BJP wins the 7 MPs since 2014, Kejriwal has blocked BJP from coming to power in Delhi.
Kejriwal is no doubt a national personality. Aside from Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi, Kejriwal is easily the most famous politician in India. Kejriwal’s AAP has also secured “National party “status from Election Commission and its candidates can contest anywhere in India on the same symbol, like BJP and Congress. AAP is the only regional party, which has ever ruled 2 different states.
Kejriwal’s future is going to be decided today 5th. February,2025. If Kejriwal wins, there will be massive consequences for both BJP and Congress. If Kejriwal loses, his survival will be difficult. Further, his Punjab government may face defections and fall.
Why Modi wants Delhi?
The June 2024 parliament elections did not give full victory to BJP. Since then, the BJP tries to win various state elections to get back its prestige. BJP won Maharashtra and Haryana, which boosted its image. Now if BJP wins Delhi, BJP can face coming elections in Bihar, Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh confidently.
Modi knows that the public feels that his charisma is down. By winning state elections, Modi’s image is going up. But there is also another big secret. Narendra Modi is meeting US President Donald Trump in February 2025. If BJP wins Delhi, then it will boost Modi’s image that he is still popular. If BJP loses Delhi, then Trump will think that Modi is no longer popular. Let us see what happens to Modi’s dreams.
Kejriwal impact on India Alliance:
Most India Alliance partners have supported Kejriwal since they say that only he can defeat BJP in Delhi and Congress has no chance. Akhilesh Yadav, Mamata Banerjee, Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar have supported Arvind Kejriwal.
- If Kejriwal wins Delhi, he will demand that Congress leave leadership of India Alliance. Already, after Congress lost Maharashtra and Haryana, Mamta Banerjee demanded that Congress step back from leadership Congress will have to bow before Kejriwal, if he wins. This will be a big defeat for Rahul Gandhi.
- If Kejriwal loses, then he will have lesser impact. Kejriwal will still control Punjab government. But his person prestige will be gone. Even the parties who supported Kejriwal will re-assess the political situation. Congress will be safer if Kejriwal loses.
- There is the third possibility. If there is a Hung-Assembly and Kejriwal can form a government with Congress support, then Congress will gain immensely in India Alliance. In politics, bitter enemies will become best friends in minutes. Over a 100 years ago, great writer George Bernard Shaw said: Politics makes strange bedfellows”. Even in Telugu States, we see how bitter enemies suddenly become best friends.
Kejriwal’s future:
Elections always have consequences. If Kejriwal wins, he will become a national figure again. Most members of India Alliance will happily welcome Kejriwal’s victory, so that Congress can be cut to size. Victorious Kejriwal will ensure that Mamata Banerjee will replace Rahul Gandhi as the Leader of India Alliance.
But if Kejriwal loses, then the future is very bleak for him. Prime Minister Modi has said that there will be further problems for Kejriwal. For 12 years, Kejriwal has been an aggressive leader. Between 2020 and 2025, Kejriwal had to face severe corruption changes like the Delhi liquor Scam, and he was distracted by going to jail. All this has damaged his image. If Kejriwal loses, he has to blame only himself for his arrogance and failures.
Delhi elections a “Freebie War “
Delhi election has been a “Freebie war “. The BJP believes that Kejriwal wins only because of Freebies he offered. So, the BJP out-did Kejriwal in making big offers of Freebies. Delhi election will decide whether “freebies” are enough to win elections. Prime Minister Modi has said that the BJP will give more than whatever Kejriwal offers.
If in spite of such huge “Freebies”, the BJP loses, then it means that the Delhi public decided to trust Kejriwal. Since 2013, Delhi voters have supported BJP for parliament elections and Kejriwal for state elections. On February 8, 2025, when results will be out, we will know whether Delhi continues with Kejriwal,
or they want change and are bored with Kejriwal.
AAP a great experiment: Kejriwal and AAP was a great experiment in Indian democracy. Kejriwal brought great change to elections and very ordinary people became MLAs and Ministers. India needs new politics. But if Kejriwal loses, it means he spoilt his own dream by poor governance and corruption. India will continue with dynasties, money and corruption, where only the rich have a place.
The great Greek philosopher Heraclitus said 2500 years ago that “Change is the only certain thing “. But then, a great French writer Jean Baptiste kar wrote 200 years ago that:” The more things change, the more they remain the same “. Let us see who is right?
(Author is a Political and economic analyst based in New Delhi)
