Uddhav Thackeray: Congress riding Shiv sena tiger?

(Dr Pentapati Pullarao)

In November 2019, Uddhav Thackeray broke of a 35-year alliance with the BJP and joined Congress to become chief minister of Maharashtra. This was a major shock for the BJP and a great victory for Congress. The BJP received a major political wound from Thackeray and Congress. It was only in June 2022 that the BJP managed to bring the downfall of Thackeray government by defections. Eknath Shinde of the Shiv sena became chief Minister.

Thackeray, Congress and Sharad Pawar continued their love story in June 2024 parliament elections, without problems. The Congress found that Uddhav Thackeray and his party were very useful in terrible abuses of Narendra Modi and BJP.  In June 2024 parliament elections, Uddhav Thackeray-Congress- Sharad Pawar alliance defeated BJP alliance in Maharashtra by winning 31 MPs out of 48.  In 2019, the BJP alliance had won 41 MPs.

After Parliament elections, the Congress party’s attitude towards Uddhav Thackeray changed, as it felt they needed him less now.

1. The Congress won 13 MPs, while Uddhav 5thackeray won only 9 MPs, though he contested many more. The Congress felt it was now the most powerful party in Maharashtra, since even the BJP won only 9 MPs. The Congress naturally felt that Uddhav Thackeray is a boaster.  
2. The Congress came to the conclusion that it was time to reduce demands and size of Uddhav Thackeray and again get the chief minister job for itself. Congress knew it can’t dump Thackeray suddenly.
3. The Congress and the Gandhis openly domi9nated the Shiv sena and Sharad Pawar after June 2024 parliament elections. The treatment of Uddhav Thackeray after June 2024 implied that he was a “spent force “.
4. The Congress gave statements that the party which wins the most MLAs in Maharashtra will get the chief minister’s job, thereby informing Uddhav Thackeray that is a finished force and will be forced out soon.

Uddhav Thackeray’s situation:

1. Uddhav Thackeray realized that lesser respect is being shown to him. He is also cunning enough cunning to understand that Congress will not give the chief minister’s job and after the elections, he will be thrown out.

• Udhav Thackery went to Delhi and appealed to the Gandhis to make him the chief Minister- face of the Alliance. But the Congress brazenly refused.  

Thackeray got the message that he was being insulted. But he realized that this was not the time to hit back against the Congress.

• Uddhav Thackeray decided to wait till elections are over. He knows he must get maximum seats in the alliance and also knows that Congress and Sharad Pawar should not get a majority without him.  No doubt, Thackeray and Congress will come to an agreement. But there is deep suspicion and behind the curtain, abuses are being said.  

What Uddhav Thackeray will do to save his career?

1. Uddhav Thackeray will try to win maximum MLAs. At the same time, Thackeray will also sabotage the seats of Congress and Sharad Pawar, so they have to depend on him.
2. Thackeray also knows that Congress will try to sabotage his seats.
3. Uddhav Thackeray has earned a reputation for betrayal. Therefore, Thackeray knows that unless he has the upper hand, Congress will ditch him. The Congress and Sharad Pawar know full well that if Thackeray is not made the chief Minister after elections, he may dump them.

In the last 5 years, Maharashtra politicians have seen Uddhav Thackeray as an arrogant, selfish dynast.

Possibilities after elections:

1. If the Congress alliance get a majority, then Congress will try its best to ensure that it gets the chief minister job. Or it will demand a share in chief Minister job.
2. The other option for the Congress is to allow Sharad Pawar party to get the chief minister job. But it will try to avoid Uddhav Thackeray as chief minister.
3. But everything depends on how many MLAs Thackeray gets. If Thackeray gets enough MLAs and he can ditch the Congress, he will do so.

What will Thackeray do if BJP alliance gets majority?

Thackeray will have no hesitation in dumping the Congress  and offering the BJP support. The famous leader of the VBA party Dr Prakash Ambedkar said that no one trusts Uddhav Thackeray anymore.

Congress thought Thackeray a spent force :

The Congress party started treating Uddhav Thackeray less respectfully after the Parliament elections. This might be a big mistake. There is now deep bitterness in the Thackeray camp towards the Congress. There is a feeling that they were sued in 2019 and now they are being treated like “ Karrepaku “.

Right now, both the Congress and Thackeray are secret enemies. The only question is whether they will become open enemies. Till now, there are no abuses. But if Thackeray does not get the minimum seats he wants, there is no doubt that he will become dangerous.

The Haryana defeat of the Congress has created problems for the Congress. Its allies now want to ensure that they extract the maximum from the Congress and also ensure that Congress does not become too powerful. The strange thing is that the friends of Congress are happy that Congress lost in Haryana.

In politics, friends and enemies are not permanent. At any time, Congress and Thackeray can become enemies and Thackeray and BJP can become friends.

The great former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson said 60n years ago: A week is a long time in politics. “. Anything can happen in Maharashtra because Uddhav Thackeray knows that he is being squeezed to death by Congress. Thackeray’s enemies are ridiculing him for now facing humiliation at hands of Congress.

Congress enjoyed Uddhav Thackeray abusing Narendra Modi. But if Congress is not careful, then the same Thackeray will start abusing the Gandhis. That won’t be so funny for the Gandhis.

(Author is Economic and Political Analyst based in New Delhi)