India should not expect too much from Trump
(Dr Pentapati Pullarao)
There is much anticipation of Modi-US President Donald Trump meeting on 13th/14/ February in USA. Ever since Donald Trump had become President, there were high expectations in India that he had a good relationship with Indian prime Minister Modi and that USA will be very good with India. This is not a correct idea of how countries behave with each other.
Over 225 years ago, British Prime minister Lord Palmerstone said: Nations have no permanent friends or eternal enemies. Nations only have permanent interests “. This statement is still valid today. Donald Trump will act on behalf of American interests only.
From 1950, Pakistan was a very special friend of USA. This was because the USA needed Pakistan in its fight with Russia. Pakistan was the only route to reach Afghanistan. Moreover, USA needed Pakistan to control India. But times change and now the USA has no interest in Afghanistan. In the last 4 years, the USA did not invite Pakistan leaders even once to the USA.
Similarly, for 40 years, the Shah of Iran was the closest friend of USA. But the Shah of Iran was overthrown by the Islamic Revolution in 1979. The Shah begged USA to give him refuge. But the USA refused to let Shah into the USA, and he died going from country to country. There is no friendship between nations.
Why USA needs India
In the last 10 years, the USA started fearing the “Rise of China “. China became an economic giant and also rose as a military power, threatening Japan, Korea, Philippines and other nations. Both Europe and USA want to control China.
The arrogant attitude of China shook up USA and Europe. China even encouraged Russia to start the Ukraine war, which has cost USA and Europe enormously.
USA and Europe started becoming friends with India, as India was really the only country with one lakh soldiers facing China on its 3500 kilometers border. USA had drawn India to the ‘QUAD “organization, which is a Defense alliance to face China. Moreover, India has become a rising economic power.
For such reasons, the USA wants very friendly relations with India. Of course, the huge Indian Diaspora in USA has also become a force for good relations between India and USA.
Donald Trump’s demands in India
- India has a trade surplus with USA of $ 40 billion. Trump wants India to reduce this deficit and also reduce tariffs on USA imports into India. India has to do something here. India is planning to buy more oil, planes and weapons form USA.
- There are lakhs of illegal migrants from India in USA. India has agreed to take them back and there is nothing wrong with that since they went there illegally. India itself is demanding that illegal migrants from Bangladesh go back.
- The other big issue is immigrations and work visas for Indians in USA. If the trade talks go well, Trump will definitely be generous on the Indians visas subject. Indian government has been handling Donald Trump very carefully. It knows that whatever Trump demands, agree first with him and then during discussions, we can change his mind.
Jealousy against Indians’ prosperity in USA
Some sections in USA feel jealousy against Indians since they are technically the best qualified and now hold big positions. They are highly visible in government and industry. Sadly, a section of Indians who migrated to USA, have also been attacking Indians. But India is a large country, and we can face them.
Modi’s meeting with Trump
Modi knows that Trump is un-predictable and has to be carefully handled. Modi also knows that Trump likes flattery. Modi is the third leader to visit Donald Trump, after Israel and Japan prime ministers. Israel and Japan are actual close allies of USA. But both their prime ministers flattered Donald Trump so much, That Trump melted at their words.
Knowing Indians, we are masters of flattery. One can be sure that Modi will use words carefully and ensure that Trump is friendly. That Trump likes flattery is a world-famous secret. Trump loved the India visit in February 2020.
If India shows that it cares too much for only one issue and that is “work visas or Hi-Bs “to USA, then the USA will naturally blackmail us. But the fact is that USA needs Indians with their technology skills. The Chinese have equally good technical skills. But the Americans don’t trust the Chinese and hence rely on Indians.
China overtook USA on Artificial Intelligence: Trump has surrounded himself with all the Technology billionaires like Tim Cook of Apple company, Facebook Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, Elon Musk and Google’s Sundar Pichai. Technology billionaires are frequently the guests of Donald trump.
Trump was confident that USA will dominate Artificial Intelligence, which is the new science. But suddenly, 10 days ago, a small Chinese Startup named “DEEPSEEK “shocked the world that it had products far more advanced than anything America has. This has sent USA into a deep depression. Due to such shocks, USA needs Indians more than ever, since Indians can contribute technical skills to make USA defeat China.
Donald Trump and the entire USA establishment know that Indians are an asset to USA. But Indians must be patient in dealing with Trump.
At present, the USA is not friendly to China. But at any minute, Trump can become friends with China. Indians should not depend on the USA for sympathy. Indians must get themselves educated better and then the world cannot do without Indians. That is the best weapon for Indians.
We should not expect instant successes in Modi’s meeting with Trump. Eventually, India will get what it wants from the USA. But Indians must understand that just because Trump is friendly with Modi, he will please India. But Indians, using great diplomacy can achieve success.
(Author is a Political and Economic Analyst based in New Delhi)
