Mamata Banerjee: Will her mistakes drown her?

(Dr Pentapati Pullarao)

The August 9 Calcutta medical college brutal murder –rape case has brought focus on Mamta Banerjee and her rule. No one can predict where this issue will end up. But definitely, it has exposed Mamata Banerjee as a poor administrator and maybe her political skills have declined. Though Mamta won’t resign, her image has suffered.

200 years ago, English historian Thomas Carlyle said that “History is but the story of great men “. There is a theory that the lives of great people reveal history of a period or place correctly. That is the Great Lives Theory “. He meant that the stories of great people, describes the time best.

Mamata Banerjee has been a big figure in Bengal since 1984, when she first became a Congress MP.  Mamta formed the Trinamul Congress in 1998, when she was expelled from Congress. Mamata won the 2011 state elections, then the 2016 and recently the 2021 elections. This is her third term as chief minister.

In 2021, Mamata defeated the Communists and Congress so badly, that they did not win even 1 MLA. BJP became the main opposition.  Bengalis love a fighter. But Bengalis also want decorum, order, respect for culture and that rulers must not become kings or tyrants.  In southern states, most politicians are super-rich the first question we ask is “how rich are they?”. But in Bengal, it is middle class people who dominate politics.

Mamata seems to have forgotten Bengali values: In her first cabinet, Mamata had many stalwarts. But the Calcutta medical college crisis brought out strange facts: Mamata is the Chief minister, the health minister and the home minister. She controls everything.

The Calcutta Medical; college murder has woken up the middle classes, who supported Mamta Banerjee but the Calcutta murder happened in the capital and not to some rural women far away.  The middle classes are totally upset.

Strengths of Mamta Banerjee:

1. Mamata Banerjee has dominated Bengal since 1984. Mamata was always visible. Through her agitations, Mamta brought down the communist government in 2011 and become a giant political figure.
2. Mamata largely enjoyed an image of personal honesty and that she stuck to her middle-class values. Mamta also showed political shrewdness by boldly forming her own political party.  
3. Mamata has a great personal following for decades. No other Bengali leader in decades enjoyed the same popularity on their own All other leaders got power because of their parties.

Weaknesses:

1. Mamata is totally dependent on the Minorities, who form 34% of Bengal’s electorate.  She gets 90% of their votes and then needs only a small percentage of Hindu votes. So, Mamta has become careless of Hindu sensitivities. Her dependence on Minority votes has angered Hindus and that is why the BJP has grown. This is a big problem for Mamata.
2. Mamata has also allowed the quality of her party members to deteriorate  and has behaved in a rough way by defending violence and rapes. People are afraid to speak out . But the Calcutta doctor murder has opened  up the gates of anger and reduced fear . .
3. In her first government, Mamata had stalwarts and intellectuals. Now there is none of stature in her government. Many ministers are ignorant of administration.

• Mamata’s party is also a dynasty party, since her nephew Abhishek Banerjee is her heir.  Thus far, in Bengal, there have been no political dynasties.

Middle Classes helped Mamta:  The middle classes helped Mamata through her career. But now Mamata is losing them by her rough actions and callousness. Mamata probably does not know that in history, it is the middle classes who brought down kings and made revolutions. It was the Bengali middle classes who brought Mamata to power. The middle classes usually don’t come out to the streets. But when they do, they are powerful. Right now, the middle class seem to be fed up with Mamata. That is a dangerous sign.  Don’t forget that in 2024 parliament election, Modi suffered losses, as the middle class became upset with him for doing nothing for them.

There is still 2 years for Mamata’s election, and this horrible murder maybe forgotten. But such incidents show that Mamata has lost the capacity for good governance. There is also the feeling in Bengal that she does not have capable ministers and is totally dependent on sycophants and the bureaucracy. Once a politician in India depends on only the bureaucracy and sycophants, then the end will surely be near.

Can Mamta change her style and give better governance?  Though change is necessary, it is nearly impossible for politicians to change. Can Mamta get rid of the roughens, who surround her?  It is doubtful that Mamta will change. The only issue is whether the Bengali public will forgive her or search for alternatives.

There have been countless murders and rapes during Mamta’s rule.  But this Calcutta murder is different as the public has got involved. The way this incident ends will determine how Mamta will fare.  If many revelations come up and there has been gang-rape and there were efforts to cover-up, then Mamta will face severe problems. Let us see how the murder-rape un-ravels.

(The Author is a Political and Economic Analyst based at New Delhi)