(Dr Pentapati Pullarao)
Maharashtra is the second largest and richest state in India. Presently, there are 7 former chief ministers Sharad Pawar, Sushil Kumar Shinde, Narayan Rane, Ashok Chavan, Prithviraj Chavan, Devendra Fadnavis and Uddhav Thackeray in active politics. The present chief minister Eknath Shinde, however is now the focus of the critical Maharashtra election.
Sharad Pawar became chief minister in 1978. Ashok Chavan is the son of former chief Minister S.B. Chavan. Prithviraj Chavan’s both parents were central ministers. Devendar Fadnavis ’s father was an MLA. Sushil Kumar Shinde had a career of 40 years, and his daughter is now an MP. Narayan Rane is an MP, and his son is an MLA. Ex- Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray is son of legendary Shiv Sena leader Bal Thackeray.
Present chief Minister Eknath Shinde started his life as an auto-rickshaw driver in Mumbai. But it looks like that Eknath Shinde has revived the fortunes of the BJP alliance.
Maharashtra election results will come in end of November 2024. In June 2024 parliament elections, BJP alliance did badly and could win only 17 MPs out of 48. The rest 31 MPs were won by the INDI Alliance in Maharashtra. Hence INDIA alliance expects an easy victory in Maharashtra.
But politics is never predictable. In the last 2 months, every survey had shown that present chief Minister Eknath Shinde is viewed very favorably as the chief Minister. This is a most un-expected development.
Maharashtra is dominated by dynastic political families, cooperative sugar factory controllers, educational institutions groups, real estate and diverse business families. To survive in Maharashtra politics is a very difficult matter. Even Sharad Pawar has influence only in 6 districts and not everywhere.
Maharashtra election scene
- Narendra Modi is not a factor in this election. In the June 2024 parliament elections, many forces joined to fight Modi. But in this state election, it is a complete local fight.
- Eknath Shinde Sena vs Thackeray Sena: The biggest rivalry that has now erupted is between chief Minister Eknath Shinde and his former boss Uddhav Thackeray. The BJP has conceded that Eknath Shinde is its most popular face. In the INDIA Alliance, though no chief Minister candidate has been announced, Uddhav Thackeray is a self- appointed Chief Minister candidate.
- This election will determine whether ex- Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray will survive or be ousted by his former follower Eknath Shinde. By joining Congress alliance, Uddhav Thackeray has left his father Bal Thackeray’s Hindutva ideology. The Congress and Sharad Pawar know that Uddhav Thackeray is a very troublesome partner. But they cannot do anything now, as he may damage them.
- The India Alliance said that of the 3 parties, whoever gets the most MLAs, will get the chief minister’s job. So, the Congress, Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray are together fighting the BJP Alliance. But they are also quietly fighting amongst themselves, to ensure their party gets the most MLAs.
- In BJP alliance, there is really no rival to Chief Minister Eknath Shinde. His party did very well in June 2024 parliament elections. Neither did BJP or another partner Ajit Pawar did as well. There is no doubt that Eknath Shinde has grown immensely in the last 2 years.
- Difference between Eknath Shinde VS Uddhav Thackeray
Uddhav Thackeray became chief Minister in November 2019, in alliance with Sharad Pawar and Congress. But suddenly, 41 MLAs out of his 57 Shiv sena MLAs left him in June 2022. The main complaint of the MLAs was that Uddhav Thackeray never met them in 2 years. His coterie insulted the MLAs and treated them badly. Eknath Shinde is just the opposite. Shinde is totally accessible to everyone, including MLAs. He talks less and works more. A good comparison to Eknath Shinde would be Odisha ex Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik. Humble Eknath Shinde vs Dynast Uddhav Thackeray: Eknath Shinde ‘s father came to Mumbai for survival. Eknath Shinde first job was as an auto-driver. He rose rapidly in the Shiv Sena due to his personality. Uddhav Thackeray was born with a golden spoon in his mouth, being the son of the biggest leader Bal Thackeray.
- Shinde has been chief minister for 30 months. Never once did Shinde say something controversial or behave badly. Shinde has shown surprising talent for running a government quietly and has earned the respect of Maharashtra.
The election in Maharashtra is most difficult to predict. But Modi is not a factor. It is chief Minister Eknath Shinde who is the main face of the BJP alliance. Udhav Thackeray is trying to play on emotions. But Eknath Shinde says that he left the Shiv sena because Uddhav Thackeray has totally forgotten the ideology of his father Bal Thackeray. Now the electorate will decide the fates of Eknath Shinde and Uddhav Thackeray.
If Eknath Shinde forms government in Maharashtra, then it would definitely be big trouble for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar and a setback to Congress. Shinde’s partner, the BJP, would be happy and un-happy. But the BJP has no option but to follow Eknath Shinde
Let us see if a man who started as an auto-driver will defeat all the dynasts and big leaders like Sharad Pawar.
(Author is a Political and Economic Analyst based in New Delhi)
