(Dr Pentapati Pullarao)
Delhi will have its state elections in February 2025. All eyes are on Kejriwal and whether he will survive the fierce attack of BJP. Although Congress is also in the race, it is only spoiling Kejriwal’s chances, by taking away minority votes. The Congress would like to take revenge against Kejriwal, because he ousted the Congress from Delhi in 2013 and from Punjab in 2022. One can understand the anger of the Congress.
Like NTR who suddenly became chief minister of Andhra Pradesh in 1983, Arvind Kejriwal suddenly became chief Minister of Delhi in December 2013. Kejriwal had no political background nor was a cinema star for 40 years like NTR.
Kejriwal swept the assembly elections in 2015 and 2020. The interesting thing is that though Kejriwal won nearly all the MLAs, his party did not win a single Lok Sabha MP in 2014, 2019 and 2024. The 7 MPs were won by the BJP.
Kejriwal became a national figure
- Kejriwal party contested elections in many states. Kejriwal showed his popularity everywhere and made a record of winning Punjab and Delhi. Kejriwal party was the only regional party in India to ever win 2 states.
Kejriwal party also got “National party” status ‘from the Election Commission
- Kejriwal did not join the BJP or Congress Front till 2024. But due to compulsions of BJP attacking him and putting corruption cases against him and finally jailing Kejriwal in 2023., Kejriwal joined INDIA Alliance, The BJP pushed him into the Congress India Alliance.
Kejriwal must win this election
- If Kejriwal loses this election, he will have no base of power, and the BJP will try to speed up the corruption cases against him. Moreover, the Congress will be very hoppy. There will be no pity for Kejriwal since he also behaved in a very arrogant fashion.
- If Kejriwal wins Delhi elections, he can claim that the public did not recognize the corruption cases against him and he will claim national leadership of the opposition, since the Congress has failed. The other opposition parties will support Kejriwal for national leadership. That is why Congress wants Kejriwal to lose Delhi.
- Defeat for Kejriwal will finish him. His prestige will be gone. The corruption stigma will stick to him. When Kejriwal went to jail, he had a government behind him.
Chances of Kejriwal victory
- The BJP is the main rival of Kejriwal. Since 2014, the BJP won all the 7 Lok Sabha MPs in Delhi. But BJP was not able to score well in the assembly. The BJP has continuously lost 6 Delhi state elections. The BJP also now has no popular leader of Delhi. But Modi is pleading that the BJP be given one chance.
- Kejriwal has created a loyal vote bank and also new leadership across Delhi. If Kejriwal gets their votes, then he might scrape through.
- Narendra Modi says that if BJP is elected, he will deliver al the promises of Kejriwal and even more. The question is whether there is “voter-fatigue “against Kejriwal.
- Kejriwal has one big advantage in that his candidates are all from middle or lower middle classes and are very well-grounded. They know everything about the electorate. This may help Kejriwal in getting their votes.
- Kejriwal also has announced a “freebee storm. In addition to the usual freebees, Kejriwal announced a widely popular scheme for Rs. 18,000 per month to every Hindu Pujari and Sikh priests. This is un-heard of in North India and will definitely help Kejriwal.
On balance, it looks as if Kejriwal may scrape through. But there is still time to see whether voters suffer from “Kejriwal Voter fatigue“ The BJP will improve its performance from 2020. The interesting thing about Delhi is that the 3 main parties hate each other. It looks as if the Congress hates Kejriwal more than they hate Modi. The BJP hopes that the enmity between Congress and Kejriwal will help it.
But Kejriwal should not be under-estimated.
(Author is a Politico and Economic Analyst based in New Delhi)
