Karnataka:  a time bomb for the Congress

(Dr Pentapati Pullarao)

Time bombs are fixed to explode at a pre-determined time. The way the in-fighting is going on in Karnataka Congress simply means that there will be a explosion, but when no one knows. Of course, experts can defuse a time bomb. The question is whether the present Congress High Commands has bomb-disposal experts now like Ahmed Patel, A K. Anthony, Ghulam Nabi Azad or others

In May 2023, Congress won a great victory in Karnataka, by winning 135 MLAS out of 224. The reason for the victory was the severe anti-incumbency against the BJP government. But Rahul Gandhi depicted the victory as one of the “6 Guarantees”. The 6 Guarantees were various freebees and direct cash transfers promises. The Congress selected ex chief minister Siddaramiah as chief minister with a promise to D.K. Shiv Kumar that he would be made Chief Minister after 30 months.   

Problems for Congress in Karnataka

1. The first challenge is how to placate Deputy Chief Minister  D.K. Shiv Kumar and his followers. They are openly demanding that Siddaramiah vacate the Chief Minister chair and hand over to Shiv Kumar.  But Siddaramiah  now refuses to agree to resign.
2. D K Shiva Kumar was on strong grounds after the assembly election. But in parliament election, Shiv Kumar promised Rahul Gandhi that Congress will win 20 out of 28 MPs in Karnataka. But Congress   won only 9 MPs and most importantly, the brother of Shiv Kumar lost. This has become a big insult to Shiv Kumar.
3. People have also become tired of the ‘ 6 Guarantees’. The reason is that most  promises are un-fulfilled.  Moreover, those people who don’t  get the “ Guarantees” are furious that they are left out. In Andhra and Telengana, the people left out of “ Guarantees and freebees” voted strongly against the state governments. This anger is building  up in Karnataka.

• Alleged Chief Minister Land scandal: In addition to governing problems, a big scandal has erupted that chief Minister Siddaramaiah grabbed valuable urban land near Mysuru city, worth hundreds of crores. Not only he BJP, but dissident Congress leaders are demanding action against Siddaramaiah.

Can Siddaramaiah get caught in a corruption scandal?

If chief Minister Siddaramaiah gets into trouble over the Mysore land scandal and there are allegations of ‘money-laundering ‘, then ED and CBI will come in and there will be a crisis. This is a major cause of worry for the Congress, as it will be a national scandal. People like deputy Chief Minister Shiv Kumar will be happy, as he can become Chief Minister.

2024 parliament elections impact :

1. The main problem for Karnataka Congress is that Narendra Modi has become the prime Minister again. This means for the next 5 years the BJP is a big force in Karnataka.
2. The Vokkaliaga in Parliament election voted for the BJP, as they were upset that Shiv Kumar has been sidelined the most important Vokkaliga leader Deve Gowda is now allied with BJP. The Vokkaliga MLAs in Conge4rss are showing their anger with Siddaramaiah.
3. Another big thorn for Karnataka Congress is that former CHIEF Minister Kumarswamy is now a central minister. Kumarswamy is again powerful and is a total enemy of Siddaramaiah and is now actively working against him in Karnataka.
4. There is also a feeling that the Congress is bowing before minorities to the detriment of the majority Hindu community. This has created   un-happiness in many Congress voters.
5. The problem in Karnataka is that out of 224 MLAs, there are at least 100 MLAs, who have been MLAs in the last 20 years. There are also 7 ex-chief ministers alive. They are Deve Gowda, Yeddyurappa, Sadananda Gowda, Bommai, Jagdish Shettar, Veerappa Moily and Kumarswamy, in addition to Siddaramaiah. No other state has so many Ex-n chief ministers alive. This creates excessive politics. Between Andhra and Telangana, there are only 3 ex-chief ministers.  

Can Congress stop the time-bomb?

The problem for the Congress is how to accommodate Shiv Kumar and yet not anger Siddaramaiah. To stop such a situation, Siddaramaiah is encouraging his followers to demand more Deputy chief minister ship and do other things to frighten Shiv Kumar.  

The BJP and central Minister Kumara swamy are not going to keep quiet. They are actively encouraging small rebellions in the Congress. The Congress MLAs also know that by the time state elections come in 2028, there will be massive anti-incumbency against the Congress in Karnataka. In Karnataka, MLAs dump parties easily.

Corruption scams have broken out. One Scam called the Valmiki Scam forced a Minister to resign.  Now the Siddaramaiah land issue is going on. In normal terms, Siddaramaiah should resign in December 2025 and make Shiv Kumar chief Minister. That looks impossible now. Shiv Kumar is also fully aware that Siddaramaiah will not resign. Such problems could have been solved by the Congress, if Narendra Modi was not the prime minister.

Let us see how the Congress will solve the difficult problems. Or will Congress wait for the problems to erupt and then see what happens?  If the Karnataka government looks weak and un-popular, the image of the Gandhis will go down.  Maybe to solve all these problems, Mallikarjun Karge will go as Chief Minister?  

As great British prime Minister Harold Wilson said 60 years ago: A week is a long time in politics “. The Congress should surprise everyone by suddenly changing chief ministers. That is better than waiting for an explosion.

(The Author is a Delhi based Political and Economic analyst)