(Dr Pentapati Pullarao)
When Obama became President of USA in 2009, in first meeting with the opposition he said; Elections have consequences ‘. Obama meant that as he won, he will do what he wants. Obama was right. But that statement made him –permanent enemies as it was an arrogant statement. In a different context, we can put Obama ’s statement to the results of Telangana on December 3. There will be major national consequences if KCR wins. KCR’s win will impact Telangana. If KCR wins, he will become the biggest regional leader in India and ready for the 2024 elections.
Regional parties comfortable with KCR:
1. In the 5- state elections, regional parties have put up candidates against the Congress in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. But no regional party has put up candidates in Telangana. 2. In Madhya Pradesh, Akhilesh Yadav is fighting many seats against Congress. In Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, Kejriwal party has candidates against the Congress. But none of them have candidates in Telangana. 3. Regional parties know that a growing Congress simply means they will accommodate Congress in their states. Mamata Banerjee, Akhilesh Yadav, Kejriwal particularly feel the heat in Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Punjab and Bengal. In these 4 states, it was regional parties who displaced the Congress and not the BJP. A rising Congress will diminish the regional parties. 4. In Bengal, the Congress and Left parties secured 8% of the votes in 2021 Bengal Assembly elections. Mamata wants their help, as the Muslim vote will split otherwise. But the Congress is demanding a big number of seats. 5. In Uttar Pradesh, Akhilesh Yadav is facing severe pressure from Muslim community to adjust with Congress. If Akhilesh Yadav does not ally with the Congress, he may lose part of Muslim vote. But if AKHIELSH YADAV allies with Congress, he will lose space himself. 6. In Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal ousted Congress in 2012 and there is not even one Congress MLA. But due to pressure from BJP, Kejriwal has to adjust with Congress This is a dangerous situation for Kejriwal, as he has to ally with the enemy. 5. In Punjab, there is a Kejriwal government and Congress is the main opposition. Congress does not want an alliance as BJP is totally absent in Punjab. Kejriwal wants an alliance with Congress. 6. In Maharashtra, the Congress is allied to Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray. Sharad Pawar is on the decline with his nephew Ajit Pawar splitting the party. Uddhav Thackeray knows that the Congress will grow and Shiv sena will be at Congress mercy. But Uddhav Thackeray has no option. Across the country, the opposition is aware that if the Congress wins Telangana, and some of the 4 states, then it can claim that all opposition parties must bow down before it. This simply means the decline of these regional parties. Even friendly governments like DMK of Stalin and Kerala Communist government don’t want Congress to become too strong. Congress will demand more space in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Though opposition parties don’t say it, they don’t want Congress to become strong. KCR’s national possibilities:
a. In the last 4 years, KCR has made efforts to be known nationally and he has succeeded. KCR is not a stranger now. KCR is far more a national figure than Mamata Banerjee, Stalin, Uddhav Thackeray or Akhilesh Yadav. Chief Minister Bihar Nitish Kumar has become controversial as has Sharad Pawar
b. The Regional leaders have been shied to claim national leadership. But KCR has been bold in saying he wants to be part of national leadership. c. Mamata Banerjee tried to win seats in Meghalaya, Tripura, Assam, Bihar, Goa and failed. Her style has worried regional leaders. Only Kejriwal more famous than KCR: The only non-Congress leader more widely known and audacious is Arvind Kejriwal, who controls Delhi and Punjab. Kejriwal party is also recognized as a national party by Election Commission. Kejriwal has many times expressed his national ambitions. Even now, Kejriwal is contesting all the 90 MLAs in Chhattisgarh, damaging Congress. But Kejriwal had to step back from national ambitions and bow before Congress due to the Delhi liquor Scam, which has endangered his position. Now Kejriwal only talks of alliance with Congress and has given up his national leadership hopes. Therefore, Kejriwal is no opposition to KCR. Problems in Congress due to Rise of Mallikarjun Kharge on October 26, 2022, Mallikharjuna Kharge became Congress President. You will notice that Congress did not organize any First anniversary celebrations on October 26, 2023, for Mallikharjun Kharge .This is because the Gandhis have started worrying whether Kharge has become the Congress face for prime Minister. The Gandhis are unhappy that regional parties are leaking to the media that Kharge is an acceptable face for prime minister and not Rahul Gandhi. Kharge is also a Dalit. Of course, Mallikarjun Kharge is no P V Narasimha Rao or Sharad Pawar to rebel. But Kharge is also happy when his name is mentioned as PM candidate.
KCR and Telangana: If KCR loses, then his party will go down badly and Telangana might become only a 2-national party state like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh. The Congress Party is fully aware that if KCR wins Telangana, he will become the biggest threat as KCR is highly acceptable to all regional parties. The regional parties are secretly pushing for KCR to win Telangana. Of course, the people of Telangana have to make a decision. But the fact is that KCR is now the only potential Telangana or even Telugu national leader. Will Telangana send KCR to national leadership? Elections are unpredictable. In 1991, after Rajiv Gandhi’s death, every Congress leader was sure Narayana Dutt Tewari, 4-time Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh will take over as PM, if Congress wins. . Narayan Dutt Tewari was contesting his home seat of Naini Tal. For 50 years, Tewari has not lost elections. But most un-expectedly Tewari lost Naini Tal Lok Sabha seat, and the biggest gainer was PV Narasimha Rao, who did not even contest the 1991 91 Lok Sabha elections. In the most important battle of his life, Tewari was let down by his own people of Naini Tal. For KCR, victory in Telangana will mean an automatically rise to national leadership. All pollical leaders are watching the Telangana battle. There is no potential national leader coming from BJP or Congress in Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan or Chhattisgarh. Only KCR can emerge as a national loader from these 4 states. So KCR is facing a test in Telangana. If KCR wins the test in Telangana on December 3, 2023, then the entire political calculations in India will change. Let us wait for December 3. Either way, there will be massive change in Telangana If KCR wins, then he will lead Opposition: When Obama became President of USA in 209, in first meeting with the opposition he said; Elections have consequences ‘. Obama meant that as he won, he will do what he wants. Obama was right. But that statement made him –permanent enemies as it was an arrogant statement. In a different context, we can put Obama ’s statement to the results of Telangana on December 3. There will be major national consequences if KCR wins. KCR’s win will impact Telangana. If KCR wins, he will become the biggest regional leader in India and ready for the 2024 elections. Regional parties comfortable with KCR: 1. In the 5- state elections, regional parties have put up candidates against the Congress in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. But no regional party has put up candidates in Telangana. 2. In Madhya Pradesh, Akhilesh Yadav is fighting many seats against Congress. In Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, Kejriwal party has candidates against the Congress. But none of them have candidates in Telengana.3. Regional parties know that a growing Congress simply means they will accommodate Congress in their states. . Mamata Banerjee, Akhilesh Yadav, Kejriwal particularly feel the heat in Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Punjab and Bengal. In these 4 states, it was regional parties who displaced the Congress and not the BJP. A rising Congress will diminish the regional parties. 4. In Bengal, the Congress and Left parties secured 8% of the votes in 2021 Bengal Assembly elections. Mamata wants their help, as the Muslim vote will split otherwise. But the Congress is demanding a big number of seats .5. In Uttar Pradesh, Akhilesh Yadav is facing severe pressure from Muslim community to adjust with Congress. If Akhilesh Yadav does not ally with the Congress, he may lose part of Muslim vote. But if AKHIELSH YADAV allies with Congress, he will lose space himself. 6. In Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal ousted Congress in 2012 and there is not even one Congress MLA. But due to pressure from BJP, Kejriwal has to adjust with Congress This is a dangerous situation for Kejriwal, as he has to ally with the enemy. 5. In Punjab, there is a Kejriwal government and Congress is the main opposition. Congress does not want an alliance as BJP is totally absent in Punjab. Kejriwal wants an alliance with Congress. 6. In Maharashtra, the Congress is allied to Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray. Sharad Pawar is on the decline with his nephew Ajit Pawar splitting the party. Uddhav Thackeray knows that the Congress will grow and Shiv sena will be at Congress mercy. But Udhdav Thackeray has no option. Across the country, the opposition is aware that if the Congress wins Telangana, and some of the 4 states, then it can claim that all opposition parties must bow down before it. This simply means the decline of these regional parties. Even friendly governments like DMK of Stalin and Kerala Communist government don’t want Congress to become too strong. Congress will demand more space in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Though opposition parties don’t say it, they don’t want Congress to become strong. KCR’s national possibilities: a. In the last 4 years, KCR has made efforts to be known nationally and he has succeeded. KCR is not a stranger now. KCR is far more a national figure than Mamata Banerjee, Stalin, Uddhav Thackeray or Akhilesh Yadav. Chief Minister Bihar Nitish Kumar has become controversial as has Sharad Pawar. b. The Regional leaders have been shy to claim national leadership. But KCR has been bold in saying he wants to be part of national leadership. c. Mamata Banerjee tried to win seats in Meghalaya, Tripura, Assam, Bihar , Goa and failed. Her style has worried regional leaders. Only Kejriwal more famous than KCR: The only non-Congress leader more widely known and audacious is Arvind Kejriwal, who controls Delhi and Punjab. Kejriwal party is also recognized as a national party by Election Commission. Kejriwal has many times expressed his national ambitions. Even now, Kejriwal is contesting all the 90 MLAs in Chhattisgarh, damaging Congress. But Kejriwal had to step back from national ambitions and bow before Congress due to the Delhi liquor Scam, which has endangered his position. Now Kejriwal only talks of alliance with Congress and has given up his national leadership hopes. Therefore, Kejriwal is no opposition to KCR. Problems in Congress due to Rise of Mallikarjun Kharge on October 26, 2022, Mallikharjun Kharge became Congress President. You will notice that Congress did not organize any First anniversary celebrations on October 26, 2023, for Mallikharjun Kharge .This is because the Gandhis have started worrying whether Kharge has become the Congress face for prime Minister. The Gandhis are unhappy that regional parties are leaking to the media that Kharge is an acceptable face for prime minister and not Rahul Gandhi. Kharge is also a Dalit. Of course, Mallikarjun Kharge is no P V Narasimha Rao or Sharad Pawar to rebel. But Kharge is also happy when his name is mentioned as PM candidate.
KCR and Telangana: If KCR loses, then his party will go down badly and Telangana might become only a 2-national part y state like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh. The Congress Party is fully aware that if KCR wins Telangana, he will become the biggest threat as KCR is highly acceptable to all regional parties. The regional parties are secretly pushing for KCR to win Telangana. Of course, the people of Telangana have to make a decision. But the fact is that KCR is now the only potential Telangana or even Telugu national leader. Will Telangana send KCR to national leadership? Elections are unpredictable. In 1991, after Rajiv Gandhi’s death, every Congress leader was sure Narayana Dutt Tewari, 4-time Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh will take over as PM, if Congress wins. Narayan Dutt Tewari was contesting his home seat of Naini Tal. For 50 years, Tewari has not lost elections. But most un-expectedly Tewari lost Naini Tal Lok Sabha seat, and the biggest gainer was PV Narasimha Rao, who did not even contest the 1991 91 Lok Sabha elections. In the most important battle of his life, Tewari was let down by his own people of Naini Tal. For KCR, victory in Telangana will mean an automatically rise to national leadership. All political leaders are watching the Telangana battle. There is no potential national leader coming from BJP or Congress in Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan or Chhattisgarh. Only KCR can emerge as a national loader from these 4 states. So KCR is facing a test in Telangana. If KCR wins the test in Telangana on December 3, 2023, then the entire political calculations in India will change. Let us wait for December 3. Either way, there will be massive change in Telangana.
(Author is Political and Economic analyst based at New Delhi)
