(Dr Pentapati Pullarao)
The recent disturbance with USA poses challenges to India. There is no border or resources dispute with USA. However, India faces existential challenge suddenly as the world’s only super power USA is bent on confronting India for various reasons. The issue here is not about the USA, but whether India can become friendly with China.
India had decided to improve relations with China. It is logical since the ancient rule “Enemy’s enemy is a friend” works even now. In fact, Pakistan and China have the closest friendship because both of them are enemies of India. The question is whether India can become less inimical with China, keeping in mind that China has been a deadly enemy for 63 years.
China’ s problems with India:
1. China has a 3500-kilometre border with India and is in a war- like situation since 1962. China became our neighbour only in 1951, when it occupied Tibet. Since then, India faces the complete hostility of China.
2. China feels India is its biggest threat and has tried every trick to ruin India by wars, encouraging Pakistan to fight with India, gets India’s neighbour like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal to be hostile to India.
3. China wants huge tracts of Indian land on its border. It had occupied huge areas before 1971. China is historically a restless enemy to its neighbours.
4. The big Indian rivers of Brahmaputra and even Indus originate in Tibet. There are already disputes with China.
5. There are problems with China even in the Indian Ocean, in United Nations and everywhere.
Can India pay the price for China’s friendship?
India will need to entirely change its policies and make huge concessions to China to become real friends. India will have to make immediate concessions on border land disputes and also agree that “China is the un- challenged leader of Asia.
India will also have to adjust to Pakistan in a big way.
Anything is possible in foreign relations. But India may not agree to pay that price.
However, as a matter of good politics, India has to show flexibility in international relations. By showing flexibility in diplomacy, India will shock other enemies and rivals.
The USA has been shocked that India is making efforts to befriend China and never expected that India will reach out to China to face the economic and trade wars.
US leaders might have imagined that India can never reach out to China, as they are enemies for 63 years. But the un- predictable move of India has shocked hostile countries.
In diplomacy, it is a rule that un- predictability and flexibility are great weapons.
What China may do?
China knows that its enmity with India is enduring. But China also sees an advantage in working with India.
A. China knows USA and Europe want to control its rise. If India goes fully with USA and Europe, then it becomes a big problem. So, China gains if India remains neutral in its fight with USA and Europe.
B. Though Europe and USA are hostile to China, they are totally dependent on China for their economies. They don’t want war with China. But they want to slow China’s rise. Even a reduction of India- China’s hostility helps China. China will openly welcome India. But there will be limits to its friendship.
C. China’s immediate problem is that it needs a good agreement with USA on trade. By being open to India, China is sending a big warning signal to USA that it can gang up with India. That challenge worries USA and Europe, Japan and Kores and other anti- China nations.
D. Whether China will help India is not the issue. Immediately, China will use India to threaten USA and Europe.
E. China also fears that Dalai Lama, presently in India, since 1959, is a great threat to China. By being friendly with India, Dalai Lama becomes harmless.
F. China has to ensure that Pakistan does not get upset if it becomes close to India.
What India immediately wants from China!
1. India wants friends to fight trade wars. If China helps the Indian economy by agreeing to buy more from India, that is a big gain.
2. If China reduces border tensions, that is also a big gain
Latest China challenge to USA and Europe!
When Xi Jin Ping became China’s President in 2013, he said that he will ensure “the “Chinese Dream” of the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”. Xi Jinping wants to make China a Superpower. On September 3, 2025, China is organising a great military parade in Beijing to show its military power and numerous countries ‘Presidents are attending it.
The Sept 3 rd., 2025 parade is a great warning to USA and Europe that their domination is over. This signal will help India, as Europe and USA realise that they have pushed India away from themselves.
Lessons for India!
A. India should remember that there are “no permanent friends or enemies between nations”. We should use diplomacy to make friends with all.
B. India should also not constantly boast that that we have become a powerful nation. This creates jealousies and worries in others. Nations, like people, should rise secretly. The great Chinese leader Deng Hsio Ling, who modernised China from 1989 advised- “Hide your strength and bide your time”. India forgot that wisdom.
C. India should try to be friendly with China. But militarily, India should become even stronger.
D. China may use India to bargain better with USA. India should be prepared for disappointments with China
India needs more “Think Tanks “and experts to constantly strategize foreign and economic policies, based on un- expected challenges. Just depending on our Foreign Ministry is not enough. Our Foreign Ministry never expected that President Trump will become hostile. Definitely, that is a big failure
The flexible diplomatic steps of India send a message to hostile nations that India will change policies and shock them. But in the long run, India has to ensure that we maintain good relations with USA and Europe.
Now we have to wait and see what China does. It is a great challenge to China also. Can China become friends with India? That depends on China. It is a historical opportunity for China. Time will tell whether China has foresight or not.
(Author is a prominent political analyst)