(Dr Pentapati Pullarao)
There is much discussion whether BJP will ever make inroads into Tamil Nadu. Prime Minister Modi has been putting efforts for last 5 years to make BJP a force in Tamil Nadu. Most political observers think that BJP will not become a big force in Tamil Nadu because of the inborn “Dravidianism “or anti- Brahmin or Anti-Hindi ideas. Many observers take this to be some kind of ‘unbreakable truth “that the BJP cannot make inroads in Tamil Nadu. But behind the curtains, there are other truths. The Russian Communist party came to power in 1917 and collapsed in 1990. The Hitler Nazi party in Germany seized power in 1937 and collapsed in 1945. There is a shelf life for all political movements. Political parties must change ideologies, or they become extinct like dinosaurs. In 2024, the BJP is making an effort to emerge in Tamil Nadu. “Change is the only constant “said Greek philosopher Heraclitus 2500 years ago.
How long will the Dravidian ideology of DMK last?
1. The DMK was founded in 1947. Before that there was the DK and before that, there was the Justice Party, which was founded on anti-Brahmanism., which operated in Madras state under British. The Justice Party was first part of the British Madras government in 1920.
2. Justice Party was the first anti-Brahmin party and was formed in 1917 and participated in Madras government in 1920. In 1938, the Justice party merged with E V Ramaswamy Naicker “Dravida Kazhagam. The DMK emerged from the Dravida Kazhagam in 1949 under C.N. Annadurai, the first DMK chief Minister of Tamil Nadu in 1967. The DMK is not the founding-party of Dravidianism. The DMK split in 1972 and cinema star MGR formed the ADMK. Between the DMK and ADMK, they have been ruling since 1967. The DMK and ADMK have had both the Congress and BJP as allies. But the Dravidian parties had a rule that there will NOT be any ministers from any other party. This has stunted the growth of national parties in Tamil Nadu. ‘1. The DMK secured 37% votes and formed the government in 2021. This is not a big vote. 2. The Congress party from 1971, gave up all hopes of growing in Tamil Nadu. The Congress wants only MPs, and it allies with anyone. That is why the Congress is stuck at 8% votes. 3. Like all other states, where regional parties formed governments, many small parties came up catering to castes, sub-regions and religions. Small parties are the only reason that DMK comes to power.
Present DMK coalition alliance: Since 2019, the Stalin DMK has a multi-party alliance including the Congress, 2 Communist parties, the VCK, Muslim League, MDMK of Vaiko, Actor Kamal Hasan party and arrangements with many small parties. Stalin realized that the DMK voting percentages were only around 30% and the only way DMK can get power is to include each and any party.
Present Status of Dravidian parties in Tamil Nadu: There are big possibilities to reduce the DMK and ADMK. There is no political space in both these parties for new leaders. That is why there are multiple small parties in Tamil Nadu To avoid being made obsolete, the DMK includes as many small parties as possible in its alliance. If the DMK were to contest alone, then it would be totally voted out of power. The BJP has made a late start in Tamil Nadu It will be difficult for the BJP to get old voters to change. But the BJP is making progress in getting new voters to join it. For new voters to make an impact, it takes at least 10 years. In North, east and West India, the BJP took a minimum of 25 years steady work to capture a state government. Right now, the BJP has started serious work in Tamil Nadu only from 2019. The main challenge to the DMK and the ADMK is that Tamil Nadu is a very different place from 1920 or even 2000. By attacking Hinduism, the DMK thinks that Minorities, who number 20% in TAMILNADU are happy. For some time, it works. The DMK paints being anti-Hindus as “Dravidianism “. But the real Dravidianism was started by Justice Party and EV Rama Swamy Naicker, who belonged to upper castes. When the DMK first came to power in 1967, it had an alliance with the foremost Brahmin in India at that time, namely Rajaji or Rajagopal chary. 100 years have passed. The DMK is aware that its old ideology is dead. The only challenge for the BJP is whether it can work in Tamil Nadu on sustained basis. The best results for BJP in Tamil Nadu is that it should get more than 10% votes. It does not matter whether it wins any MPs. 10% votes means that its journey has started. The DMK is a totally dynasty party. Within the party, most of the MLAs and MPs are families. Stalin’s sister is an MP. Stalin’s son is a minister. Durai Murgun as a Minister and his son is an MP. T R Baalu is an MP, and his son is a Minister. The entire DMK structure is like a business. Where is the ideology in it? The Communist party ruled Bengal from 1977 to 2012. It lost in 2012 and today does not have even 1 MLA in Bengal. Nothing remains static. It is for the BJP to work on a sustained basis. But can it do that?
(Author is a Political and Economic analyst based in New Delhi)
