All depends upon how Prashant Kishor fares in the coming elections
(Dr Pentapati Pullarao)
In October 2025, crucial elections will be held for 243 MLAs in Bihar. Bihar is a state which the BJP cannot afford to lose. Though the BJP won Haryana and Maharashtra elections, if BJP loses Bihar, then it means its powerful opponents have captured a big state.
Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is such a critical factor in Bihar politics that whenever he switches alliances, that alliance wins. Though Nitish Kumar contests with alliances, his own party gets a steady 18% of the vote.
Bihar, like Tamil Nadu has dozens of political parties. Though small parties sometimes have strength in only a district, they make the difference between victory and defeat. Bihar has the BJP Alliance and an alliance led by Laloo Prasad Yadav.
Some aspects of Bihar politics:
- Bihar is one state where the BJP has never formed a government on its own. It always needed Nitish Kumar to form a government. Even today, the powerful BJP cannot get a majority on its own.
- BJP has Nitish Kumar as its most important alliance partner.
- Laloo Prasad Yadav dominated Bihar politics from 1989 to 2005, when his wife was chief minister. But after the rise of Nitish Kumar in 2005, Laloo never won Bihar again.
- Laloo depends on his Yadav caste, Congress party and Muslim voters. Laloo has not been able to expand his base. Without Nitish Kumar, even Laloo cannot form a government in Bihar. In 2015, Laloo alliance won the Bihar election. But then, Nitish Kumar became the chief minister.
- There are many small parties. They switch sides frequently. But the key players are Nitish Kumar and Laloo Prasad Yadav.
New factors in Bihar politics:
- There is no doubt that Narendra Modi, though he is an outsider, is the most popular politician in Bihar. For parliament elections since 2014, Bihar has given Modi big victories. In Assembly elections, however, Bihar supports local politicians too.
- Till a few years ago, the Yadav voters, who number over 10% of the electorate, voted totally for Laloo Prasad Yadav. But now, Yadav voters also vote for BJP alliance, since they are giving more importance to governance and religion than merely caste.
- Muslims consistently vote against the BJP. But some Muslim voters support Nitish Kumar.
Can famous Prashant Kishor make an impact?
Prashant Kishor is a famous election specialist. In October 2024, Prashant Kishor formed a party “ Jan Suraj” to contest elections in Bihar. Prashant Kishor’s party is now spread out in Bihar. In the recent by-elections to the Assembly, his candidates did not win. But Kishor’s candidates had shown their strength.
In Bihar, for the last 47 years, there has been near total-dynasty rule. The same politicians or their children become MLAs and MPs, Therefore, since same families have a stranglehold on elected posts, there is no space for new entrants. Prashant Kishor is offering space to new entrants in politics.
Prashant Kishor will definitely contest all the 243 MLA seats, and he will make an impact. Since Bihar politics is polarized between religions and castes, it will be difficult for Prashant Kishor to win many MLAs. But Kishor will get a significant number of votes.
Congress in Bihar: The Congress Party has been an ally of Laloo Prasad for many years. Recently, Congress announced that it will restore its old glory. Many people imagine Congress will contest on its own. That is not at all the objectives. The idea of trying to increase its presence is to ensure that Laloo Prasad Yadav gives Congress enough seats. That is all.
The Congress is in no position to contest alone.
Election prospects in 2025:
The BJP is ruling India and looks powerful. The BJP has taken all steps and also allotted huge sums for Bihar during the budget. Moreover, the BJP knows that it does not have a popular state-wide leader and has to rely totally on Nitish Kumar. the BJP also has carefully accommodated all the small parties.
Laloo Prasad’s alliance depends on his Yadav caste, some sections of BCs and Muslim voters. Laloo Prasad’s son Tejaswi Yadav is known to be a crafty leader. But the problem for Laloo Prasad is the old image of muscle and corruption.
People of Bihar largely don’t want Laloo Prasad or his family to rule Bihar again. If Laloo Prasad had selected a different leader to head his alliance, then Bihar voters might give him victory. Bihar voters might prefer Nitish Kumar to Laloo Yadav.
Prashant Kishor dreams that he might become the Kejriwal of Bihar and win. But Delhi is a big city, and Bihar is a big backward state. Even if Prashant Kishor makes a small impact, that would be a great victory for him. But Bihar also wants change from the old politics
Right now, it looks as if the advantage is with BJP alliance. But there are many months to go, and it is too early to predict. However, if Nitish Kumar wins the election again, it will mean that people prefer an honest man, a non-violent man, with no dynasty.
(Author is a Political and Economic Commentator based in New Delhi)
