(Dr Pentapati Pullarao)
The Congress party is enjoying the feeling of victory. After winning 44 MPs in 2014 and 52 MPs in 2019, it won 99 MPs in 2024. From its terrible decline to only 44 MPs in 2014, going up to 99 MPs and securing position of leader of opposition for Rahul Gandhi is a big achievement. Moreover, in the Gandhi circles, there is whispering that Modi is getting old and will retire and then the way is clear for Rahul Gandhi. 500 years ago, a German priest said, “Man proposes, god disposes”. It only means we cannot predict the future and plans may fail.
Congress victory: a. The Congress only contested 328 MP seats out of 543. It won 99 MPs, which is a great improvement. It is not as high as 2004 when Congress won 145 or 210 MPs in 2009. But 99 MPs was a big number. It made Rahul Gandhi leader of the Opposition.
b. Allies have major share. Out of the 232 MPs which INDIA Alliance won, only 99 are from Congress. 133 MPs are non-Congress MPs from allies.
c. Ever since the first Parliament election in 1952, India now has the biggest opposition ever of 232 MPs in Indian history. So, the Opposition is huge.
d. Rahul Gandhi conducted a pro-Minority campaign for the last 5 years. This strategy paid off in the 2024 election as Minorities voted overwhelmingly for Congress.
e. The Congress also got a campaign about the Constitution to secure votes of people who have Reservations, by making them afraid that reservations might be removed.
Allies main strength of Congress:
a. Maharashtra: the Congress had powerful allies in Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray. Therefore, the Congress won 13 MPs in 2024 compared to 1 MP in 2019, out of 48. b. In Uttar Pradesh, Congress won 1 MP out of 80 in 2019. Now with Akhilesh Yadav as its ally, the Congress won 8 MPs in Uttar Pradesh.
c. Haryana: In 2019, the Congress won zero MPs out of 10 in 2019. In 2024, Congress had Kejriwal as an ally and won 5 MPs out of 10.
d. Tamil Nadu: In 2019, Congress won 8 MPs out of 39 and again in 2024, Congress won the same 8 MPs out of 39, thanks to the DMK alliance.
e. Rajasthan: In 2019, Congress won zero MPs. But in 2024, Congress had an alliance with many small parties and won 8 MPs.
f. Jharkhand: In 2019, Congress won 2 MPs out of 14 in 2024. The Congress had many parties as allies in Jharkhand.
g. Kerala: In Kerala, Congress has a big alliance with many small parties. The Congress won 14 MPs out of 20 in Kerala.
Allies of Congress worried at growing’s strength of Congress:
a. Bihar: Laloo Prasad likes the Congress as an ally. But Laloo Prasad wants a weak Congress. Laloo wants the Congress to restrict itself and not grow and occupy more space in Bihar. Laloo is very aware that the Congress will weaken him.
b. Maharashtra: Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray want the Congress as an ally. But they don’t the Congress as a dominating ally. The coming Maharashtra elections in November 2024 may see some problems.
C. Bengal and Mamta Banerjee: Mamata is aware that the Congress is taking away her Minority vote bank. She knows that if she does not ally with Congress, then the Minorities will desert her. The rising Congress is a big problem for Mamata. While sweet words might now be exchanged, there are sharp knives hidden for future fighting between Congress and Mamata.
Congress internal problems:
a. Karnataka: The result for Congress was not as good as expected. In-fighting has broken out between Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and deputy Chief Minister Shiv Kumar. The “Free- Guarantees “and freebees have not wo0rked in Karnataka. This is a bad sign that the government is failing.
B. Telangana: The Congress is also dis-appointed in Telangana that it won only 8 MPs. Congress set up a Committee under Prof. P.J. Kurien to find out why Congress did not do so well. The Congress won due to anti-KCR sentiments. Now the BJP has become a rising party. There is worry in how the Congress will tackle the BJP and KCR. Will Hindus become angry at Congress Minority politics? The emphasis that Congress is giving Minorities may lead to counter-polarizations it happened in 2014. This is a big question facing the Congress. In Karnataka, the Congress faced opposition due to allegations of Minority-pampering. This si an issue which will arise in the near future.
Rahul Gandhi cannot anger his allies: Rahul Gandhi is loader of the Congress. But Rahul cannot act as the dominating leader of the entire opposition. In the recent Lok Sabha speaker’s election, allies like Mamata Banerjee, Sharad Pawar and others were unhappy that without consulting them, Congress announced election for Speaker. This led to Congress stepping back and not demanding vote counts in Lok Sabha. The Congress won 58 MPs, in states where it had allies. Where the Congress contested alone, like in Karnataka, Telangana, Odisha, Punjab, etc., the Congress won only 41 MPs. This is the strength and weakness of the Congress. The Congress must be very careful not to anger its allies. If any major alliance party leaves, then Congress will become very weak. The opposition did well in the elections. But finally, Narendra Modi is the prime minister, and nothing has changed. Both the BJP and Congress have to be careful not to commit mistakes. There is much danger in arrogance and over-confidence for all.
(Author is a Political and Economic analyst)
