(Dr Pentapati Pullarao)
“Elections have consequences” said President Barack Obama in 2008. In India, there will be great consequences since our politics is largely dynasty-dominated. Every state has a couple of dynasties. National parties are also infested with dynasties. All political parties will be affected if power changes hands Like the dynasties of kings, political parties largely care for their survival and prosperity, hiding under the guise that they do ‘public service “. The entire political system is tuned in such a way that only those who control political parties can win office. It is entirely impossible for independents to get elected as an MLA or MP. Naturally the biggest impact of the 2024 parliament elections will be on Narendra Modi and the BJP. If Modi gets a third term, it means the BJP will be ruling India for nearly 15 years. However, an equally big impact will be on regional party leaders. Regional parties have linked their fortunes to the central government. If a regional party is part of the central government, then it enjoys power and minister ships. Between 2004 and 2014, when DMK was part of Government of India, many of their ministers ended up in jail for corruption.
Impact of 2024 in various states:
1. Andhra Pradesh: There are 3 regional parties, namely YSR Congress, TDP and Jana Sena. Either the Telugu Desam Kutami will get power or Jagan Reddy. There will be serious consequences for the losing side. One can expect cases, enquiries, imprisonment, etc. Important issues like Amaravathi will be decided. The losing side will face serious harassment and caste rivalries will increase.
2. Telangana has 3 players. Though Revanth Reddy became chief minister in December 2023, the 2024 election has become a referendum on him. The Congress must win a minimum of 12 MPs out of 17. Otherwise, his rivals KCR and BJP will start a campaign that Revanth is un-popular. The BJP must win at least 5 MPs and KCR another 2 MPs.
3. Tamil Nadu: Stalin DMK is expected to win most of the 39 MPs, since the opposition is divided. But the key question is whether BJP increases its vote percentage? Then there will be future trouble for the tired DMK. If the BJP wins even 2 MPs, it will claim a great victory. Since 1967, no national party has been able to challenge the DMK.
4. Bihar: In Bihar, the BJP has the government with ally Nitish Kumar as chief Minister. Its opposition is Laloo Prasad family party. If BJP captures power in Centre, then entire Laloo Prasad family faces the full pressure of ED and CBI in Railway Jobs Scam, where allegedly 1300 jobs were sold for land. This is the “Modi Guarantee ‘that the Laloo Prasad party fears. If BJP loses, then the cases against them will be dropped.
5. Bengal: The BJP faces Mamata Banerjee regional party. If Modi wins, then there will be intense pressure politically on Mamata and also through the Ed and CBI on diverse corruption cases in Bengal. Mamata fears the victory of Modi.
6. Maharashtra: The regional leaders Sharad Pawar, Shiv Sena Uddhav Thackeray, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde of another Shiv sena and Ajit Pawar, who split the NCP will be tested. Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray also know that if Modi wins in Delhi, then they will face further pressure on corruption cases.
7. Odisha: Naveen Patnaik has been ruling Odisha for 25 years. There is an assembly and parliament election in Odisha. If Naveen Patnaik wins the assembly elections, then he is safe. It won’t impact Naveen Patnaik if Modi wins in Delhi.
8. In Jharkhand, the former chief Minister Hemant Soren is in jail for money laundering charges. If BJP forms the Central government, then Hemant Soren will be spending a lot more time in jail.
9. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is out on bail. If Modi wins, then back to jail he goes and will serve terms.
If Modi wins?
a. The Congress party will be the biggest loser. It will be out of power for another 5 years and the full power of ED and CBI will exposé corruption in their party. The BJP will also get time to prepare of state elections where the Congress is in power. It will be a hard time for Congress.
b. All regional parties which have corruption cases will face severe problems. The only exception will be Naveen Patnaik. c. The BJP will also work harder to politically penetrate southern states of Telangana, Andhra, Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
If Modi loses?
1. It will be a major setback for the BJP and its plans for expansion will be halted. Without Modi as prime minister, BJP cannot gain politically. “Defeat is an orphan” as Napoleon said, many politicians will ditch the BJP.
2. The non-BJP government will immediately withdraw all cases where its political allies are involved.
3. The Congress and its allies will try to bring down BJP governments in states. One thing is sure. If Modi wins, then ED and CBI will move fast to jail corrupt leaders. If Modi loses, all such cases will be withdrawn or frozen. 2024 elections will have big consequences. Regional parties are particularly worried.
(Author is a Political and Economic Analyst based in New Delhi)
